WON Tip WON Man United 1-2 Leeds United
M

Man United

Home
D W L W W
7W 2D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
1-2
L
Leeds United
Away
W D D W L
2W 6D 2L ▲ Improving
StraightWinOdds Selection · Monday, 13th April 2026
Over 1.5
Backing over 1.5 goals
Implied Prob 84% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +3% Value detected
Kelly % 18.6% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
6
Man United
4
Draws
0
Leeds United
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 1.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Man United
Metric
Leeds United
2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
0.9
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-2-1
W — D — L
2-6-2
Win Rate
70%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
L0
L1
L2
L3
L4
L5
M0
0-0 7.4%
0-1 8.5%
0-2 4.9%
0-3 1.9%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 10.8%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 3.8%
3-1 4.3%
3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(12.4%) 1-0(10.8%) 2-1(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   L=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Man United
Overall
7.6
Scoring
6.7
Defence
6.3
Leeds United
Overall
3.8
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 22%
Draw & BTTS Yes 19%
Draw & BTTS No 12%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 6%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 27%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 16%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.01.26
Premier League: Leeds United1
Manchester United1
19.07.25
Friendly: Manchester United0
Leeds United0
12.07.23
Friendly: Manchester United2
Leeds United0
12.02.23
Premier League: Leeds United0
Manchester United2
08.02.23
Premier League: Manchester United2
Leeds United2
20.02.22
Premier League: Leeds United2
Manchester United4
14.08.21
Premier League: Manchester United5
Leeds United1
25.04.21
Premier League: Leeds United0
Manchester United0
20.12.20
Premier League: Manchester United6
Leeds United2
17.07.19
Friendly: Manchester United4
Leeds United0
Recent Form
Man United
20.03.26
Premier League: AFC Bournemouth2
Manchester United2
D
15.03.26
Premier League: Manchester United3
Aston Villa1
W
04.03.26
Premier League: Newcastle United2
Manchester United1
L
01.03.26
Premier League: Manchester United2
Crystal Palace1
W
23.02.26
Premier League: Everton0
Manchester United1
W
10.02.26
Premier League: West Ham United1
Manchester United1
D
07.02.26
Premier League: Manchester United2
Tottenham0
W
01.02.26
Premier League: Manchester United3
Fulham2
W
25.01.26
Premier League: Arsenal2
Manchester United3
W
17.01.26
Premier League: Manchester United2
Manchester City0
W
Leeds United
05.04.26
FA Cup (QF): West Ham United2
Leeds United - W (Pens)2
21.03.26
Premier League: Leeds United0
Brentford0
D
15.03.26
Premier League: Crystal Palace0
Leeds United0
D
08.03.26
FA Cup (R5): Leeds United3
Norwich City0
W
03.03.26
Premier League: Leeds United0
Sunderland1
L
28.02.26
Premier League: Leeds United0
Manchester City1
L
21.02.26
Premier League: Aston Villa1
Leeds United1
D
15.02.26
FA Cup (R4): Birmingham City1
Leeds United - W (Replay/Pens)1
10.02.26
Premier League: Chelsea2
Leeds United2
D
06.02.26
Premier League: Leeds United3
Nottingham Forest1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Monday, 13th April 2026, Man United host Leeds United in Premier League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Man United arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Leeds United are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 6D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Man United, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Leeds United's 0, with 4 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.19 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Premier League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 1.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.19 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Man United vs Leeds United?
Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 87%.
What is Man United's current form?
Man United have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Leeds United been performing recently?
Leeds United have recorded 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Man United lead with 6 wins versus Leeds United's 0, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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