WON Tip WON Flora 1-0 Narva
F

Flora

Home
W W W L W
6W 0D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
1-0
N
Narva
Away
L L L L L
3W 0D 7L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 5th May 2026
1
Backing Flora to win
Flora 60%
Draw 20%
Narva 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 83.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -20.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Flora to win
1.20
Over 2.5 Goals80% Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Flora vs Narva Competition: Estonian Cup Date: Tuesday, 5th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Flora to win) Odds: 1.20 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (80%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Flora
3
Draws
0
Narva
10
Meetings
4.1
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Flora won 7 of the last 10 meetings (3 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Flora
Metric
Narva
2.1
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.3
Goals Against / Game
3
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-0-4
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate
60%
30%
3.8
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
F0
0-0 2.2%
0-1 2.8%
0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
F1
1-0 5.7%
1-1 7.1%
1-2 4.5%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.2%
F2
2-0 7.3%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
F3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 4.8%
3-3 2.0%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
F4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 4.9%
4-2 3.1%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 2.0%
5-1 2.5%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.7%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.1%) 3-1(7.7%) 2-0(7.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Flora Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Narva Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Flora
Overall
6.0
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.7
Narva
Overall
3.0
Scoring
4.0
Defence
0.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 37%
Draw & BTTS Yes 0%
Draw & BTTS No 0%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 54%
Home Win & Under 2.5 13%
Draw & Over 2.5 0%
Draw & Under 2.5 0%
Away Win & Over 2.5 26%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
21.10.25ML
Flora4
Narva0
02.08.25ML
Narva1
Flora1
18.06.25ML
Narva1
Flora2
01.03.25ML
Flora2
Narva2
17.09.24ML
Narva1
Flora1
03.08.24ML
Flora3
Narva1
18.05.24ML
Narva1
Flora3
06.04.24ML
Flora4
Narva3
25.02.24SC
Flora3
Narva2
Recent Form
Flora
30.04.26ML
Flora5
Harju JK Laagri0
W
26.04.26ML
Paide1
Flora2
W
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
W
19.04.26ML
Levadia4
Flora0
L
12.04.26ML
Flora2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
07.04.26ML
Flora2
Kuressaare1
W
03.04.26ML
Tammeka3
Flora1
L
22.03.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Flora0
L
15.03.26ML
Flora0
Kalju1
L
10.03.26CUP
Flora3
Nomme Utd1
W
Narva
01.05.26ML
Narva0
Kalju3
L
26.04.26ML
Levadia7
Narva0
L
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
L
18.04.26ML
Narva1
Kuressaare2
L
11.04.26ML
Nomme Utd5
Narva1
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
W
03.04.26ML
Kalju2
Narva1
L
21.03.26ML
Narva2
Parnu JK Vaprus1
W
15.03.26ML
Paide1
Narva0
L
11.03.26CUP
Narva4
Viimsi JK3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Flora host Narva in Estonian Cup. We recommend Flora to win as the standout selection.

Flora arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Narva are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 0D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Flora, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Narva's 0, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 80% of those meetings.

Our verdict: flora to win at odds of 1.20 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Estonian Cup fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.20 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Narva?
Our selection is 1 — Flora to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Flora's current form?
Flora have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Narva been performing recently?
Narva have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Flora lead with 7 wins versus Narva's 0, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
⚠️
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