WON Tip WON Al Shabab 2-4 Al Nassr
A

Al Shabab

Home
L D L W D
3W 4D 3L → Steady
VS
2-4
A
Al Nassr
Away
L W W W W
9W 0D 1L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 7th May 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 73% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +5% Value detected
Kelly % 18.5% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.37
Over 1.5 Goals90% Al Nassr Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Shabab vs Al Nassr Competition: Saudi Professional League Date: Thursday, 7th May 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 78% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: Al Nassr Clean Sheet (60%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Al Shabab
3
Draws
7
Al Nassr
10
Meetings
3.9
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Shabab
Metric
Al Nassr
2.6
Goals For / Game
2.9
2
Goals Against / Game
0.7
10%
Clean Sheets
60%
3-4-3
W — D — L
9-0-1
Win Rate
30%
90%
4.1
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 1.7%
0-1 4.1%
0-2 5.0%
0-3 4.1%
0-4 2.5%
0-5 1.2%
A1
1-0 2.7%
1-1 6.7%
1-2 8.2%
1-3 6.7%
1-4 4.1%
1-5 2.0%
A2
2-0 2.3%
2-1 5.5%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 5.5%
2-4 3.4%
2-5 1.7%
A3
3-0 1.2%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 3.0%
3-4 1.9%
3-5 0.9%
A4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 1.3%
4-4 0.8%
4-5 0.4%
A5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.4%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(8.2%) 2-2(6.8%) 1-1(6.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Shabab
Overall
4.2
Scoring
8.7
Defence
3.3
Al Nassr
Overall
9.0
Scoring
9.7
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 39%
Away Win & BTTS No 26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 39%
Away Win & Under 2.5 26%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.01.26SPL
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
07.03.25SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Shabab2
18.10.24SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Nassr2
25.02.24SPL
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr3
11.12.23KC
Al Shabab2
Al Nassr5
29.08.23SPL
Al Nassr4
Al Shabab0
28.07.23ACCC
Al Nassr0
Al Shabab0
23.05.23SPL
Al Nassr3
Al Shabab2
14.01.23SPL
Al Shabab0
Al Nassr0
06.05.22SPL
Al Nassr4
Al Shabab2
Recent Form
Al Shabab
03.05.26SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Taawon5
L
28.04.26SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Fateh1
D
23.04.26GCC
Al Shabab0
Al Rayyan3
L
19.04.26GCC
Al Shabab12
Zakho1
W
14.04.26SPL
Al Qadsiah2
Al Shabab2
D
05.04.26SPL
Al Riyadh1
Al Shabab1
D
14.03.26SPL
Al Shabab2
Al Okhdood0
W
07.03.26SPL
Al Ettifaq1
Al Shabab1
D
27.02.26SPL
Al Shabab3
Al Hilal5
L
23.02.26SPL
Al Shabab3
Al Riyadh1
W
Al Nassr
03.05.26SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Nassr1
L
29.04.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Ahli SC0
W
22.04.26CL2
Al Nassr5
Al Ahli Doha1
W
19.04.26CL2
Al Wasl0
Al Nassr4
W
15.04.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Al Ettifaq0
W
11.04.26SPL
Al Okhdood0
Al Nassr2
W
03.04.26SPL
Al Nassr5
Al Najma2
W
14.03.26SPL
Al Khaleej0
Al Nassr5
W
07.03.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Neom SC0
W
28.02.26SPL
Al Fayha1
Al Nassr3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Al Shabab host Al Nassr in Saudi Professional League. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Al Shabab arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Nassr are travelling well, with a record of 9W 0D 1L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Shabab, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Al Nassr's 7, with 3 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.37 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Saudi Professional League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 2.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.37 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Shabab vs Al Nassr?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Al Shabab's current form?
Al Shabab have won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Nassr been performing recently?
Al Nassr have recorded 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Shabab lead with 0 wins versus Al Nassr's 7, with 3 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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