WON Tip WON Como 1-0 Parma
C

Como

Home
W D W L L
5W 2D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
1-0
P
Parma
Away
L L W W D
2W 4D 4L → Steady
StraightWinOdds Selection · Sunday, 17th May 2026
1
Backing Como to win
Como 50%
Draw 30%
Parma 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -33.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
2
Como
5
Draws
3
Parma
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Como won 2 of the last 10 meetings (5 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Como
Metric
Parma
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.8
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.4
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-4-4
Win Rate
50%
20%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
C0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
C1
1-0 12.5%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
C2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
C3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.5%) 2-0(10.0%) 2-1(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip C=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Como Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Parma Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Como
Overall
5.6
Scoring
6.0
Defence
6.3
Parma
Overall
3.2
Scoring
2.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 8%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
25.10.25SA
Parma0
Como0
03.05.25SA
Parma0
Como1
19.10.24SA
Como1
Parma1
24.02.24SB
Como1
Parma1
20.10.23SB
Parma2
Como1
18.03.23SB
Como2
Parma0
29.10.22SB
Parma1
Como0
06.04.22SB
Parma4
Como3
28.11.21SB
Como1
Parma1
09.02.03SA
Como2
Parma2
Recent Form
Como
10.05.26SA
Verona0
Como1
W
02.05.26SA
Como0
Napoli0
D
26.04.26SA
Genoa0
Como2
W
21.04.26COP
Inter3
Como2
L
17.04.26SA
Sassuolo2
Como1
L
12.04.26SA
Como3
Inter4
L
06.04.26SA
Udinese0
Como0
D
22.03.26SA
Como5
Pisa0
W
15.03.26SA
Como2
AS Roma1
W
07.03.26SA
Cagliari1
Como2
W
Parma
10.05.26SA
Parma2
AS Roma3
L
03.05.26SA
Inter2
Parma0
L
25.04.26SA
Parma1
Pisa0
W
18.04.26SA
Udinese0
Parma1
W
12.04.26SA
Parma1
Napoli1
D
04.04.26SA
Lazio1
Parma1
D
21.03.26SA
Parma0
Cremonese2
L
13.03.26SA
Torino4
Parma1
L
08.03.26SA
Fiorentina0
Parma0
D
27.02.26SA
Parma1
Cagliari1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Sunday, 17th May 2026, Como host Parma in Serie A. We recommend Como to win as the standout selection.

Como arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Parma are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 4D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Como, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Parma's 3, with 5 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: como to win at odds of 1.33 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Serie A fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.33 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Como vs Parma?
Our selection is 1 — Como to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 42%.
What is Como's current form?
Como have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Parma been performing recently?
Parma have recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Como lead with 2 wins versus Parma's 3, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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