WON Tip WON Tartu Welco 4-2 Nomme Kalju U21
T

Tartu Welco

Home
W D L W D
6W 2D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
4-2
N
Nomme Kalju U21
Away
D W W L W
4W 2D 4L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 28th May 2026
1
Backing Tartu Welco to win
Tartu Welco 50%
Draw 30%
Nomme Kalju U21 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 82% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Tartu Welco to win
1.22
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Tartu Welco vs Nomme Kalju U21 Competition: Estonia Esiliiga Date: Thursday, 28th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Tartu Welco to win) Odds: 1.22 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
9
Tartu Welco
0
Draws
1
Nomme Kalju U21
10
Meetings
5
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Tartu Welco won 9 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Tartu Welco
Metric
Nomme Kalju U21
2.5
Goals For / Game
1.7
1.5
Goals Against / Game
2.3
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
6-2-2
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
60%
40%
4
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
T0
0-0 1.8%
0-1 2.9%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.2%
T1
1-0 4.4%
1-1 7.0%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 3.0%
1-4 1.2%
1-5 0.4%
T2
2-0 5.3%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.6%
2-4 1.4%
2-5 0.5%
T3
3-0 4.2%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 5.4%
3-3 2.9%
3-4 1.2%
3-5 0.4%
T4
4-0 2.5%
4-1 4.1%
4-2 3.2%
4-3 1.7%
4-4 0.7%
4-5 0.2%
T5
5-0 1.2%
5-1 1.9%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.8%
5-4 0.3%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(8.4%) 3-1(6.8%) 3-2(5.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip T=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Tartu Welco Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Nomme Kalju U21 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Tartu Welco
Overall
6.6
Scoring
8.3
Defence
5.0
Nomme Kalju U21
Overall
4.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 33%
Home Win & Under 2.5 18%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
11.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
23.10.25ESI
Tartu Welco5
Nomme Kalju U212
19.07.25ESI
Nomme Kalju U210
Tartu Welco3
19.06.25ESI
Tartu Welco0
Nomme Kalju U211
01.05.25ESI
Nomme Kalju U210
Tartu Welco4
24.09.23ESB
Nomme Kalju U213
Tartu Welco4
03.07.23ESB
Tartu Welco4
Nomme Kalju U212
29.05.23ESB
Tartu Welco5
Nomme Kalju U212
02.04.23ESB
Nomme Kalju U210
Tartu Welco4
15.10.22ESB
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco4
Recent Form
Tartu Welco
24.05.26ESI
Maardu0
Tartu Welco1
W
17.05.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Flora U213
D
09.05.26ESI
Tallinna Kalev2
Tartu Welco0
L
01.05.26ESI
FC Tallinn0
Tartu Welco2
W
27.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Elva3
D
23.04.26ESI
Viimsi JK2
Tartu Welco0
L
17.04.26ESI
Tartu Welco3
Levadia U212
W
11.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
W
03.04.26ESI
Nomme Utd U211
Tartu Welco3
W
21.03.26ESI
Tartu Welco5
Maardu1
W
Nomme Kalju U21
16.05.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Viimsi JK1
D
11.05.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Levadia U210
W
02.05.26ESI
Elva2
Nomme Kalju U214
W
27.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U210
Tallinna Kalev4
L
24.04.26ESI
Nomme Utd U210
Nomme Kalju U213
W
18.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U213
Maardu2
W
11.04.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U211
Tartu Welco5
L
04.04.26ESI
FC Tallinn6
Nomme Kalju U213
L
19.03.26ESI
Flora U213
Nomme Kalju U211
L
14.03.26ESI
Nomme Kalju U210
Viimsi JK0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 28th May 2026, Tartu Welco host Nomme Kalju U21 in Estonia Esiliiga. We recommend Tartu Welco to win as the standout selection.

Tartu Welco arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Nomme Kalju U21 are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Tartu Welco, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Nomme Kalju U21's 1, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 60% of those meetings.

Our verdict: tartu welco to win at odds of 1.22 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Estonia Esiliiga fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.22 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Tartu Welco vs Nomme Kalju U21?
Our selection is 1 — Tartu Welco to win, priced at approximately 1.22. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Tartu Welco's current form?
Tartu Welco have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Nomme Kalju U21 been performing recently?
Nomme Kalju U21 have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Tartu Welco lead with 9 wins versus Nomme Kalju U21's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
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