LOST Tip LOST Aarau 1-3 Etoile-Carouge
A

Aarau

Home
W W W W W
7W 2D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
1-3
E
Etoile-Carouge
Away
D W W L W
4W 4D 2L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 7th April 2026
1X
Backing Aarau to win or draw
Implied Prob 91.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -1.7% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Aarau to win or draw
1.09
Under 2.5 Goals70% BTTS — No70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge Competition: Swiss Challenge League Date: Tuesday, 7th April 2026 Pick: 1X (Aarau to win or draw) Odds: 1.09 Confidence: 90% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: BTTS — No (70%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Aarau
1
Draws
2
Etoile-Carouge
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Aarau
Metric
Etoile-Carouge
2.4
Goals For / Game
0
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0
40%
Clean Sheets
0%
7-2-1
W — D — L
4-4-2
Win Rate
70%
40%
2
Avg Goals
40%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
A0
0-0 14.2%
0-1 10.7%
0-2 4.0%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 17.1%
1-1 12.8%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 10.2%
2-1 7.7%
2-2 2.9%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 4.1%
3-1 3.1%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.2%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.3%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(17.1%) 0-0(14.2%) 1-1(12.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   E=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Aarau
Overall
7.6
Scoring
8.0
Defence
5.0
Etoile-Carouge
Overall
5.2
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 15%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 15%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
Aarau3
12.12.25
Challenge League: Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge1
26.09.25
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge1
Aarau3
16.05.25
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge1
Aarau3
28.03.25
Challenge League: Aarau2
Etoile-Carouge2
05.12.24
Swiss Cup: Aarau0
Etoile-Carouge1
01.11.24
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge2
Aarau1
24.08.24
Challenge League: Aarau1
Etoile-Carouge0
23.05.12
Challenge League: Aarau7
Etoile-Carouge0
24.09.11
Challenge League: Etoile-Carouge0
Aarau2
Recent Form
Aarau
04.04.26
Challenge League: Rapperswil-Jona4
FC Aarau5
W
21.03.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau1
Neuchâtel Xamax0
W
13.03.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau2
FC Vaduz0
W
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
FC Aarau3
W
27.02.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau5
Rapperswil-Jona3
W
20.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais1
FC Aarau1
D
13.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy4
FC Aarau2
L
07.02.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau2
FC Wil2
D
30.01.26
Challenge League: Yverdon Sport1
FC Aarau2
W
24.01.26
Challenge League: FC Aarau1
Bellinzona0
W
Etoile-Carouge
03.04.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
Stade Nyonnais0
D
22.03.26
Challenge League: FC Wil1
Étoile Carouge3
W
13.03.26
Challenge League: Bellinzona0
Étoile Carouge3
W
06.03.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge0
FC Aarau3
L
28.02.26
Challenge League: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0
Étoile Carouge1
W
20.02.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge2
Yverdon Sport2
D
13.02.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge1
Neuchâtel Xamax3
L
06.02.26
Challenge League: FC Vaduz3
Étoile Carouge3
D
30.01.26
Challenge League: Étoile Carouge2
Rapperswil-Jona1
W
23.01.26
Challenge League: Stade Nyonnais2
Étoile Carouge2
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 7th April 2026, Aarau host Etoile-Carouge in Swiss Challenge League. We recommend Aarau to win or draw as the standout selection.

Aarau arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Etoile-Carouge are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 4D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Aarau, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Etoile-Carouge's 2, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: aarau to win or draw at odds of 1.09 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Swiss Challenge League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1X, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.09 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Aarau vs Etoile-Carouge?
Our selection is 1X — Aarau to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.09. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Aarau's current form?
Aarau have won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Etoile-Carouge been performing recently?
Etoile-Carouge have recorded 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Aarau lead with 7 wins versus Etoile-Carouge's 2, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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