WON Tip WON Al Merreikh 4-1 Etincelles
A

Al Merreikh

Home
W W L D W
6W 3D 1L → Steady
VS
4-1
E
Etincelles
Away
D D L W L
2W 5D 3L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 7th May 2026
1
Backing Al Merreikh to win
Al Merreikh 50%
Draw 30%
Etincelles 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 68% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Merreikh to win
1.47
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No70% Al Merreikh Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Merreikh vs Etincelles Competition: Rwanda Premier League Date: Thursday, 7th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Merreikh to win) Odds: 1.47 Confidence: 62% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (70%) Also: Al Merreikh Clean Sheet (70%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Al Merreikh
0
Draws
0
Etincelles
1
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Al Merreikh won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Merreikh
Metric
Etincelles
1.4
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.3
Goals Against / Game
1
70%
Clean Sheets
40%
6-3-1
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
60%
20%
1.7
Avg Goals
55%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
30%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
E0
E1
E2
E3
E4
E5
A0
0-0 18.3%
0-1 9.1%
0-2 2.3%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 21.9%
1-1 11.0%
1-2 2.7%
1-3 0.5%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
A2
2-0 13.2%
2-1 6.6%
2-2 1.6%
2-3 0.3%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
A3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 2.6%
3-2 0.7%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 1.6%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(21.9%) 2-0(13.2%) 2-1(6.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   E=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Merreikh Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Etincelles Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Merreikh
Overall
6.9
Scoring
4.7
Defence
9.0
Etincelles
Overall
3.5
Scoring
2.3
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 18%
Home Win & Under 2.5 33%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 21%
Away Win & Over 2.5 6%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
17.12.25PL
Etincelles1
Al-Merreikh2
Recent Form
Al Merreikh
02.05.26PL
Gicumbi0
Al-Merreikh3
W
26.04.26PL
Al-Merreikh3
Bugesera0
W
18.04.26PL
Mukura Victory Sports1
Al-Merreikh0
L
04.04.26PL
Al-Merreikh0
Rutsiro0
D
19.03.26PL
Al-Merreikh3
Muhanga0
W
16.03.26PL
Rayon Sport0
Al-Merreikh0
D
09.03.26PL
Police0
Al-Merreikh1
W
27.02.26PL
Al-Merreikh1
Gasogi United1
D
22.02.26PL
AS Kigali0
Al-Merreikh1
W
17.02.26PL
Al-Hilal Omdurman1
Al-Merreikh2
W
Etincelles
02.05.26PL
Etincelles0
Amagaju0
D
26.04.26PL
Etincelles0
Kiyovu0
D
21.04.26CUP
Etincelles1
APR3
L
18.04.26PL
Etincelles2
APR1
W
04.04.26PL
Bugesera3
Etincelles0
L
22.03.26PL
Police1
Etincelles1
D
18.03.26CUP
Etincelles2
Bugesera0
W
14.03.26PL
Rutsiro0
Etincelles0
D
11.03.26CUP
Bugesera1
Etincelles0
L
08.03.26PL
Etincelles1
Rayon Sport1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 7th May 2026, Al Merreikh host Etincelles in Rwanda Premier League. We recommend Al Merreikh to win as the standout selection.

Al Merreikh arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Etincelles are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Merreikh, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Etincelles's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al merreikh to win at odds of 1.47 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Rwanda Premier League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.47 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Merreikh vs Etincelles?
Our selection is 1 — Al Merreikh to win, priced at approximately 1.47. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Al Merreikh's current form?
Al Merreikh have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Etincelles been performing recently?
Etincelles have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Merreikh lead with 1 wins versus Etincelles's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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