WON Tip WON Al Talaba 2-1 Baghdad
A

Al Talaba

Home
D W W W L
6W 3D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
2-1
B
Baghdad
Away
L L L L L
0W 2D 8L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Wednesday, 25th March 2026
1
Backing Al Talaba to win
Al Talaba 50%
Draw 30%
Baghdad 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 70.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -14.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Talaba to win
1.42
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Talaba vs Baghdad Competition: Iraq Stars League Date: Wednesday, 25th March 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Talaba to win) Odds: 1.42 Confidence: 56% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Al Talaba
2
Draws
2
Baghdad
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Al Talaba won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Talaba
Metric
Baghdad
1.8
Goals For / Game
0.9
0.9
Goals Against / Game
2.3
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-3-1
W — D — L
0-2-8
Win Rate
60%
0%
3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
A0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 2.1%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 10.7%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.3%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 11.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.3%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.5%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 3.0%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 1.6%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(11.0%) 1-0(10.7%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Talaba Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Baghdad Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Talaba
Overall
6.9
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Baghdad
Overall
0.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 46%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 19%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 0%
Away Win & BTTS No 0%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 32%
Draw & Over 2.5 16%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 0%
Away Win & Under 2.5 0%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
23.11.25
SL: Baghdad2
Al Talaba1
27.02.25
CUP: Al Talaba2
Baghdad0
05.05.24
SL: Al Talaba3
Baghdad2
22.02.24
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba2
29.06.22
SL: Al Talaba2
Baghdad2
16.01.22
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba1
09.03.21
SL: Al Talaba1
Baghdad2
23.11.20
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba1
26.04.19
SL: Al Talaba0
Baghdad0
20.10.18
SL: Baghdad0
Al Talaba3
Recent Form
Al Talaba
17.03.26
SL: Al Shorta3
Al Talaba3
D
12.03.26
SL: Al Kahraba1
Al Talaba2
W
06.03.26
SL: Al Talaba2
Al-Qassim0
W
28.02.26
SL: Naft Missan0
Al Talaba1
W
20.02.26
SL: Al Talaba1
Al Quwa Al Jawiya2
L
13.02.26
SL: Al Karkh0
Al Talaba2
W
05.02.26
SL: Al-Karma1
Al Talaba1
D
31.01.26
SL: Al Talaba3
Al Gharraf1
W
27.01.26
SL: Al Talaba1
Diyala1
D
23.01.26
SL: Erbil0
Al Talaba2
W
Baghdad
21.03.26
SL: Al Zawraa3
Amanat Baghdad2
L
17.03.26
SL: Al Quwa Al Jawiya3
Amanat Baghdad1
L
12.03.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad0
Newroz2
L
06.03.26
SL: Naft Missan2
Amanat Baghdad1
L
01.03.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad1
Al Naft2
L
22.02.26
SL: Al Kahraba5
Amanat Baghdad0
L
06.02.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad0
Al Minaa0
D
31.01.26
SL: Amanat Baghdad1
Erbil1
D
26.01.26
SL: Al Gharraf3
Amanat Baghdad2
L
22.01.26
SL: Al-Karma2
Amanat Baghdad1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Iraq Stars League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.42 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Talaba vs Baghdad?
Our selection is 1 — Al Talaba to win, priced at approximately 1.42. Tip confidence rating: 56%.
What is Al Talaba's current form?
Al Talaba have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Baghdad been performing recently?
Baghdad have recorded 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Talaba lead with 6 wins versus Baghdad's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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