Moderate Signal 62% Confidence
A

Apollon

Home
W D W W L
6W 1D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
6:00 pm
Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi)
D
Dila Gori
Away
W L L W L
4W 0D 5L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 28th July 2026
1
Backing Apollon to win
Apollon 50%
Draw 30%
Dila Gori 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 72.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -10.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Apollon
0
Draws
0
Dila Gori
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
0%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Apollon won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Apollon
Metric
Dila Gori
1.7
Goals For / Game
1.6
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.6
50%
Clean Sheets
22%
6-1-3
W — D — L
4-0-5
Win Rate
60%
44%
2.9
Avg Goals
68%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
37%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
A0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 6.7%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 2.0%
0-4 0.7%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 8.2%
1-1 11.1%
1-2 7.5%
1-3 3.4%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
A2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 2.8%
2-4 0.9%
2-5 0.3%
A3
3-0 3.7%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.2%) 1-0(8.2%) 2-0(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Apollon Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Dila Gori Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Apollon
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
6.3
Dila Gori
Overall
4.4
Scoring
5.2
Defence
4.8
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 25%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 23%
Away Win & Under 2.5 17%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
23.07.26UECL
Dila Gori0
Apollon4
Recent Form
Apollon
23.07.26UECL
Dila Gori0
Apollon4
W
16.07.26CF
Apollon0
AEK Larnaca0
D
11.07.26CF
G.A. Eagles0
Apollon3
W
07.07.26CF
Utrecht0
Apollon1
W
29.05.26CUP
Apollon0
Pafos2
L
22.05.26CL
Omonia5
Apollon2
L
16.05.26CL
Apollon3
Aris2
W
10.05.26CL
Apollon2
APOEL0
W
06.05.26CL
AEK Larnaca1
Apollon0
L
03.05.26CL
Apollon2
Pafos1
W
Dila Gori
25.07.26CUP
Iberia 20100
Dila Gori1
W
23.07.26UECL
Dila Gori0
Apollon4
L
16.07.26UECL
Virtus1
Dila Gori0
L
09.07.26UECL
Dila Gori3
Virtus1
W
27.06.26SC
Dila Gori0
Torpedo Kutaisi1
L
22.06.26EL1
Dila Gori3
Rustavi0
W
16.06.26EL1
Dila Gori3
Spaeri1
W
12.06.26EL1
Dinamo Batumi3
Dila Gori2
L
29.05.26EL1
Dila Gori2
Samgurali3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 28th July 2026, Apollon host Dila Gori at Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi) in Conference League Qualifiers. We recommend Apollon to win as the standout selection.

Apollon arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Dila Gori are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 0D 5L across 9 matches.

Historical meetings favour Apollon, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Dila Gori's 0, with 0 draws from 1 encounters. Both teams have scored in 0% of those meetings.

Our verdict: apollon to win at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Conference League Qualifiers match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Alphamega Stadium (Kolossi). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.38, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 6:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Apollon vs Dila Gori?
Our selection is 1 — Apollon to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Apollon's current form?
Apollon have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Dila Gori been performing recently?
Dila Gori have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws and 5 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Apollon lead with 1 wins versus Dila Gori's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 0%.
⚠️
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