WON Tip WON Caernarfon 0-4 TNS
C

Caernarfon

Home
L L W W L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
0-4
T
TNS
Away
L W W L W
8W 0D 2L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 27th March 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 69% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +3% Value detected
Kelly % 9.8% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.45
Under 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Caernarfon vs TNS Competition: Wales Cymru Premier Date: Friday, 27th March 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.45 Confidence: 72% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Caernarfon
10
Draws
0
TNS
10
Meetings
3.7
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Caernarfon
Metric
TNS
1.6
Goals For / Game
0
1.5
Goals Against / Game
0
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
3-3-4
W — D — L
8-0-2
Win Rate
30%
80%
1.6
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
C0
0-0 21.2%
0-1 15.9%
0-2 6.0%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.0%
C1
1-0 17.0%
1-1 12.7%
1-2 4.8%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
C2
2-0 6.8%
2-1 5.1%
2-2 1.9%
2-3 0.5%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
C3
3-0 1.8%
3-1 1.4%
3-2 0.5%
3-3 0.1%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
C4
4-0 0.4%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
C5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-0(21.2%) 1-0(17.0%) 0-1(15.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip C=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Caernarfon
Overall
3.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
5.0
TNS
Overall
8.0
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Home Win & BTTS No 16%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 42%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 22%
Away Win & Under 2.5 42%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town1
28.11.25
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town0
04.11.25
LC: The New Saints3
Caernarfon Town0
07.10.25
PL: Caernarfon Town1
The New Saints3
11.02.25
PL: Caernarfon Town0
The New Saints1
26.12.24
PL: Caernarfon Town2
The New Saints5
23.02.24
PL: Caernarfon Town1
The New Saints8
26.09.23
PL: Caernarfon Town1
The New Saints3
03.01.23
PL: Caernarfon Town0
The New Saints1
01.04.22
PL: Caernarfon Town0
The New Saints3
Recent Form
Caernarfon
21.03.26
PL: Barry Town2
Caernarfon Town1
L
13.03.26
PL: Caernarfon Town2
Connah’s Quay4
L
08.03.26
FAC: Rhyl 18791
Caernarfon Town2
W
27.02.26
PL: Caernarfon Town3
Colwyn Bay0
W
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town1
L
14.02.26
PL: Caernarfon Town0
Barry Town2
L
06.02.26
PL: Connah’s Quay1
Caernarfon Town1
D
31.01.26
FAC: Caernarfon Town4
Colwyn Bay1
W
24.01.26
PL: Penybont0
Caernarfon Town0
D
13.01.26
PL: Caernarfon Town2
Connah’s Quay2
D
TNS
20.03.26
PL: The New Saints0
Colwyn Bay2
L
14.03.26
PL: Penybont1
The New Saints2
W
03.03.26
PL: Connah’s Quay1
The New Saints2
W
28.02.26
CUP: The New Saints0
Barry Town2
L
20.02.26
PL: The New Saints2
Caernarfon Town1
W
13.02.26
PL: Colwyn Bay0
The New Saints2
W
07.02.26
PL: The New Saints6
Penybont0
W
24.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Barry Town0
W
13.01.26
PL: The New Saints1
Colwyn Bay0
W
06.01.26
PL: The New Saints2
Bala Town1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 27th March 2026, Caernarfon host TNS in Wales Cymru Premier. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

Caernarfon arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

TNS are travelling well, with a record of 8W 0D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Caernarfon, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to TNS's 0, with 10 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.45 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Wales Cymru Premier fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 2.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.45 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Caernarfon vs TNS?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 72%.
What is Caernarfon's current form?
Caernarfon have won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has TNS been performing recently?
TNS have recorded 8 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Caernarfon lead with 0 wins versus TNS's 0, with 10 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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