Moderate Signal 48% Confidence
E

Esteghlal

Home
L D W W D
4W 5D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
—
3:15 pm
—
Azadi Stadium (Tehran)
S
Shams Azar Qazvin
Away
L D D L L
1W 4D 5L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 30th October 2026
1
Backing Esteghlal to win
Implied Prob 65.8% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -17.8% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Esteghlal to win
1.52
Under 2.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Esteghlal vs Shams Azar Qazvin Competition: Iran Persian Gulf Pro League Date: Friday, 30th October 2026 KO: 3:15 pm Pick: 1 (Esteghlal to win) Odds: 1.52 Confidence: 48% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (80%)
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Head to Head
Record
4
Esteghlal
2
Draws
1
Shams Azar Qazvin
7
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
86%
BTTS
71%
Over 2.5
Neutral Esteghlal won 4 of the last 7 meetings (2 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Esteghlal
Metric
Shams Azar Qazvin
1
Goals For / Game
0.7
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-5-1
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
40%
10%
1.8
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
E0
0-0 17.4%
0-1 11.3%
0-2 3.7%
0-3 0.8%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 19.1%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 10.5%
2-1 6.8%
2-2 2.2%
2-3 0.5%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 3.9%
3-1 2.5%
3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 1.1%
4-1 0.7%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(19.1%) 2-0(10.5%) 2-1(6.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Esteghlal
Overall
5.5 —
Scoring
3.3 —
Defence
8.0 —
Shams Azar Qazvin
Overall
2.2 ▲
Scoring
2.3 ▲
Defence
6.0 ▲
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Home Win & BTTS No 25%
Draw & BTTS Yes 19%
Draw & BTTS No 28%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 34%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 38%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
05.02.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.3
Shams Azar Qazvin2
26.09.25PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin1
Esteghlal F.C.1
13.02.25HC
Shams Azar Qazvin1
Esteghlal F.C.2
20.01.25PGL
Esteghlal F.C.0
Shams Azar Qazvin1
16.08.24PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin1
Esteghlal F.C.2
19.04.24PGL
Esteghlal F.C.3
Shams Azar Qazvin2
02.11.23PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin2
Esteghlal F.C.2
Recent Form
Esteghlal
27.10.26CL
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai2
Esteghlal F.C.0
L
23.10.26PGL
Chadormalu1
Esteghlal F.C.1
D
19.10.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Gol Gohar0
W
12.10.26CL
Al Gharafa1
Esteghlal F.C.2
W
08.10.26PGL
Tractor1
Esteghlal F.C.1
D
14.09.26CL
Esteghlal F.C.3
Al Sadd0
W
10.09.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Paykan0
W
06.09.26PGL
Aluminium Arak0
Esteghlal F.C.0
D
02.09.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Persepolis1
D
28.08.26PGL
Foolad0
Esteghlal F.C.0
D
Shams Azar Qazvin
25.10.26PGL
Esteghlal Khuzestan2
Shams Azar Qazvin0
L
18.10.26PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin0
Sepahan0
D
10.10.26PGL
Paykan1
Shams Azar Qazvin1
D
10.09.26PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin2
Gol Gohar3
L
06.09.26PGL
Chadormalu1
Shams Azar Qazvin0
L
01.09.26PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin0
Tractor0
D
28.08.26PGL
Nassaji Mazandaran0
Shams Azar Qazvin2
W
23.08.26PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin1
Aluminium Arak2
L
19.08.26PGL
Foolad1
Shams Azar Qazvin1
D
15.08.26PGL
Shams Azar Qazvin0
Persepolis2
L
Esteghlal (Home)
19.10.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Gol Gohar0
W
14.09.26CL
Esteghlal F.C.3
Al Sadd0
W
10.09.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Paykan0
W
02.09.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Persepolis1
D
23.08.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.2
Sepahan0
W
14.08.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.4
Mes Shahr Babak0
W
27.02.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.2
Fajr Sepasi1
W
10.02.26CL2
Esteghlal F.C.0
Al Hussein1
L
05.02.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.3
Shams Azar Qazvin2
W
27.01.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.1
Esteghlal Khuzestan0
W
Shams Azar Qazvin (Away)
25.10.26PGL
Esteghlal Khuzestan2
Shams Azar Qazvin0
L
10.10.26PGL
Paykan1
Shams Azar Qazvin1
D
06.09.26PGL
Chadormalu1
Shams Azar Qazvin0
L
28.08.26PGL
Nassaji Mazandaran0
Shams Azar Qazvin2
W
19.08.26PGL
Foolad1
Shams Azar Qazvin1
D
20.02.26PGL
Fajr Sepasi1
Shams Azar Qazvin0
L
05.02.26PGL
Esteghlal F.C.3
Shams Azar Qazvin2
L
28.01.26PGL
Paykan0
Shams Azar Qazvin1
W
23.01.26PGL
Chadormalu0
Shams Azar Qazvin0
D
17.12.25PGL
Zob Ahan0
Shams Azar Qazvin0
D
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Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Iran Persian Gulf Pro League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Azadi Stadium (Tehran). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 draws, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.52, which our model rates near 49. The fixture starts at 3:15 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Esteghlal vs Shams Azar Qazvin?
Our selection is 1 — Esteghlal to win, priced at approximately 1.52. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Esteghlal's current form?
Esteghlal have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Shams Azar Qazvin been performing recently?
Shams Azar Qazvin have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Esteghlal lead with 4 wins versus Shams Azar Qazvin's 1, with 2 draws across 7 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 86%.
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