Moderate Signal 51% Confidence
E

Etar

Home
W W W W W
7W 0D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
5:00 pm
Ivajlo Stadion (Veliko Tarnovo)
R
Rilski Sportist
Away
D L L L L
2W 1D 7L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 15th August 2026
1
Backing Etar to win
Etar 50%
Draw 30%
Rilski Sportist 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 72.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -21.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
3
Etar
2
Draws
5
Rilski Sportist
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Etar won 3 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Etar
Metric
Rilski Sportist
2.6
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-0-3
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
70%
20%
3.2
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
E0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 4.9%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
E1
1-0 8.2%
1-1 9.8%
1-2 5.9%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
E2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
E3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 6.5%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
E4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 3.3%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
E5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.3%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(8.2%) 2-0(8.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Etar Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Rilski Sportist Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Etar
Overall
7.0
Scoring
8.7
Defence
4.0
Rilski Sportist
Overall
2.3
Scoring
2.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 44%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 8%
Away Win & BTTS No 13%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
01.05.10BPF
Rilski Sportist1
Etar1
14.11.09BPF
Etar2
Rilski Sportist0
18.04.09BPF
Rilski Sportist2
Etar1
20.09.08BPF
Etar0
Rilski Sportist1
13.04.08BPF
Etar1
Rilski Sportist1
06.10.07BPF
Rilski Sportist2
Etar1
15.04.06BPF
Rilski Sportist3
Etar2
24.09.05BPF
Etar2
Rilski Sportist1
06.04.052L
Rilski Sportist2
Etar0
18.09.042L
Etar3
Rilski Sportist1
Recent Form
Etar
07.08.262L
Etar1
Marek0
W
03.08.262L
Etar2
Yantra Gabrovo1
W
25.07.262L
Nesebar1
Etar5
W
18.07.26CF
Etar8
Sevlievo0
W
11.07.26CF
Chernomorets 19191
Etar3
W
04.07.26CF
Botev Plovdiv1
Etar2
W
26.06.26CF
Ludogorets7
Etar4
L
23.06.26CF
Levski Sofia6
Etar0
L
23.05.262L
Marek1
Etar0
L
15.05.262L
Etar1
Ludogorets II0
W
Rilski Sportist
09.08.262L
Rilski Sportist2
Spartak Pleven2
D
01.08.262L
Fratria1
Rilski Sportist0
L
28.07.262L
Rilski Sportist0
Ludogorets II1
L
11.07.26CF
Rilski Sportist0
CSKA Sofia II2
L
08.07.26CF
Rilski Sportist0
Lok. Plovdiv2
L
04.07.26CF
Rilski Sportist1
Vihren0
W
01.07.26CF
Rilski Sportist0
Arda2
L
27.05.263L
Gotse Delchev1
Rilski Sportist2
W
23.05.263L
Rilski Sportist1
Botev Ihtiman2
L
16.05.263L
CSKA Sofia III1
Rilski Sportist0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Bulgaria Vtora Liga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 5 wins from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Ivajlo Stadion (Veliko Tarnovo). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.38, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 5:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Etar vs Rilski Sportist?
Our selection is 1 — Etar to win, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 51%.
What is Etar's current form?
Etar have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Rilski Sportist been performing recently?
Rilski Sportist have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Etar lead with 3 wins versus Rilski Sportist's 5, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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