Moderate Signal 59% Confidence
F

Flora

Home
L L W W W
4W 1D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
5:00 pm
A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)
K
Kuressaare
Away
W W L W D
4W 2D 4L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Sunday, 16th August 2026
1
Backing Flora to win
Flora 50%
Draw 30%
Kuressaare 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.6% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -15.6% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
9
Flora
1
Draws
0
Kuressaare
10
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Flora won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Flora
Metric
Kuressaare
1.3
Goals For / Game
2.1
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1.3
33%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-1-4
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
44%
40%
3.2
Avg Goals
68%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
42%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
K0
K1
K2
K3
K4
K5
F0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 7.9%
0-2 7.3%
0-3 4.5%
0-4 2.1%
0-5 0.8%
F1
1-0 5.6%
1-1 10.3%
1-2 9.5%
1-3 5.9%
1-4 2.7%
1-5 1.0%
F2
2-0 3.6%
2-1 6.7%
2-2 6.2%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.8%
2-5 0.7%
F3
3-0 1.6%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.8%
3-5 0.3%
F4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.9%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(6.7%) 1-0(5.6%) 2-0(3.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   K=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Flora Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Kuressaare Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Flora
Overall
4.8
Scoring
4.4
Defence
4.8
Kuressaare
Overall
4.6
Scoring
7.0
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 7%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 16%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 25%
Away Win & Under 2.5 15%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
02.07.26ML
Kuressaare0
Flora3
07.04.26ML
Flora2
Kuressaare1
01.11.25ML
Flora2
Kuressaare0
24.08.25ML
Kuressaare1
Flora2
27.05.25ML
Kuressaare1
Flora3
29.03.25ML
Flora5
Kuressaare0
26.10.24ML
Flora3
Kuressaare0
14.09.24ML
Kuressaare3
Flora4
21.05.24ML
Flora1
Kuressaare0
27.04.24ML
Kuressaare2
Flora2
Recent Form
Flora
13.08.26UECL
Flora0
Inter Escaldes4
L
06.08.26UECL
Inter Escaldes2
Flora0
L
02.08.26ML
Flora1
Harju JK Laagri0
W
23.07.26UECL
Flora1
TNS0
W
17.07.26ML
Flora1
Nomme Utd2
L
14.07.26CL
Iberia 19992
Flora2
D
08.07.26CL
Flora2
Iberia 19993
L
02.07.26ML
Kuressaare0
Flora3
W
28.06.26ML
Levadia1
Flora2
W
Kuressaare
11.08.26CUP
Kristiine0
Kuressaare8
W
07.08.26ML
Kuressaare3
Harju JK Laagri2
W
02.08.26ML
Paide1
Kuressaare0
L
23.07.26CUP
Kuressaare5
Tartu Welco 21
W
19.07.26ML
Kuressaare0
Kalju0
D
11.07.26ML
Nomme Utd3
Kuressaare2
L
02.07.26ML
Kuressaare0
Flora3
L
26.06.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kuressaare0
L
16.06.26ML
Kuressaare0
Narva0
D
13.06.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Kuressaare3
W
Flora (Home)
13.08.26UECL
Flora0
Inter Escaldes4
L
02.08.26ML
Flora1
Harju JK Laagri0
W
23.07.26UECL
Flora1
TNS0
W
17.07.26ML
Flora1
Nomme Utd2
L
08.07.26CL
Flora2
Iberia 19993
L
21.06.26ML
Flora1
Paide2
L
13.06.26ML
Flora1
Levadia3
L
05.05.26CUP
Flora1
Narva0
W
30.04.26ML
Flora5
Harju JK Laagri0
W
22.04.26ML
Flora6
Narva0
W
Kuressaare (Away)
11.08.26CUP
Kristiine0
Kuressaare8
W
02.08.26ML
Paide1
Kuressaare0
L
11.07.26ML
Nomme Utd3
Kuressaare2
L
26.06.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Kuressaare0
L
13.06.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Kuressaare3
W
31.05.26ML
Paide1
Kuressaare1
D
08.05.26ML
Tammeka1
Kuressaare0
L
25.04.26ML
Nomme Utd2
Kuressaare1
L
18.04.26ML
Narva1
Kuressaare2
W
07.04.26ML
Flora2
Kuressaare1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Estonia Meistriliiga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.34, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 5:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Flora vs Kuressaare?
Our selection is 1 — Flora to win, priced at approximately 1.34. Tip confidence rating: 59%.
What is Flora's current form?
Flora have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 9 matches.
How has Kuressaare been performing recently?
Kuressaare have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Flora lead with 9 wins versus Kuressaare's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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