Weak Signal 39% Confidence
H

Home Farm

Home
D W W W D
4W 3D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
—
2:00 pm
—
N/A
B
Bonagee
Away
L L L D L
2W 2D 5L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 10th October 2026
1
Backing Home Farm to win
Implied Prob 69.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -30.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Home Farm to win
1.44
Over 1.5 Goals84%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Home Farm vs Bonagee Competition: Ireland National League Date: Saturday, 10th October 2026 KO: 2:00 pm Pick: 1 (Home Farm to win) Odds: 1.44 Confidence: 39% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (84%)
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Head to Head
Record
0
Home Farm
1
Draws
0
Bonagee
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Home Farm won 0 of the last 1 meetings (1 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Home Farm
Metric
Bonagee
2
Goals For / Game
1.4
1.6
Goals Against / Game
2
30%
Clean Sheets
11%
4-3-3
W — D — L
2-2-5
Win Rate
40%
22%
3.5
Avg Goals
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
58%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
B0
B1
B2
B3
B4
B5
H0
0-0 3.0%
0-1 4.5%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.2%
H1
1-0 6.0%
1-1 9.1%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 3.4%
1-4 1.3%
1-5 0.4%
H2
2-0 6.0%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 6.8%
2-3 3.4%
2-4 1.3%
2-5 0.4%
H3
3-0 4.0%
3-1 6.0%
3-2 4.5%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 0.9%
3-5 0.3%
H4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 2.3%
4-3 1.1%
4-4 0.4%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.2%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 2-1(9.1%) 1-0(6.0%) 2-0(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   B=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Home Farm
Overall
4.9 ▼
Scoring
6.7 ▼
Defence
4.7 ▼
Bonagee
Overall
2.9 ▲
Scoring
4.8 ▲
Defence
3.3 ▲
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 17%
Draw & Over 2.5 19%
Draw & Under 2.5 11%
Away Win & Over 2.5 16%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.08.26NL
Bonagee2
Home Farm2
Recent Form
Home Farm
03.10.26NL
Lucan Utd2
Home Farm2
D
26.09.26NL
Home Farm4
Cockhill0
W
12.09.26NL
Mervue United1
Home Farm6
W
05.09.26NL
Cockhill0
Home Farm2
W
29.08.26NL
Bonagee2
Home Farm2
D
10.10.21CF
Edenderry Town0
Home Farm1
W
21.04.19FAI
Glengad Utd1
Home Farm (5-4)1
12.08.18FAI
Home Farm1
Cork City5
L
08.06.08FAI
Home Farm0
Carrick Utd2
L
23.07.03FAI
Home Farm1
Waterford3
L
Bonagee
03.10.26NL
Bonagee1
Mervue United6
L
19.09.26NL
Mervue United2
Bonagee1
L
12.09.26NL
Bonagee0
Lucan Utd1
L
29.08.26NL
Bonagee2
Home Farm2
D
26.08.22FAI
Bonagee0
Shelbourne4
L
31.07.22FAI
Bonagee6
Pike Rovers0
W
23.05.10FAI
Crumlin Utd1
Bonagee0
L
16.05.10FAI
Bonagee1
Crumlin Utd1
D
21.03.10FAI
Bonagee2
Clonmel Town1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Ireland National League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.44, which our model rates near around 5 in 10. The fixture starts at 2:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Home Farm vs Bonagee?
Our selection is 1 — Home Farm to win, priced at approximately 1.44. Tip confidence rating: 39%.
What is Home Farm's current form?
Home Farm have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Bonagee been performing recently?
Bonagee have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 9 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Home Farm lead with 0 wins versus Bonagee's 0, with 1 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
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