Moderate Signal 52% Confidence
L

Ludogorets

Home
W W W W D
7W 3D 0L ▲ Improving
VS
—
6:00 pm
—
Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)
A
Arda
Away
L D L L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Monday, 12th October 2026
1
Backing Ludogorets to win
Implied Prob 73% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -21% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Ludogorets to win
1.37
Over 1.5 Goals90%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Ludogorets vs Arda Competition: Bulgaria EFBET League Date: Monday, 12th October 2026 KO: 6:00 pm Pick: 1 (Ludogorets to win) Odds: 1.37 Confidence: 52% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%)
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Head to Head
Record
4
Ludogorets
4
Draws
2
Arda
10
Meetings
2.9
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Ludogorets won 4 of the last 10 meetings (4 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Ludogorets
Metric
Arda
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.4
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
40%
7-3-0
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
70%
50%
3
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
L0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 6.0%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.3%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 9.4%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 6.2%
1-3 2.4%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
L2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 5.1%
3-1 5.9%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 2.3%
4-1 2.6%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.8%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(9.4%) 2-0(8.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Ludogorets
Overall
7.9 ▼
Scoring
7.7 ▼
Defence
7.0 ▼
Arda
Overall
5.3 ▲
Scoring
4.7 ▲
Defence
5.7 ▲
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 22%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 28%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 16%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
15.04.261L
Arda1
Ludogorets0
09.11.251L
Ludogorets2
Arda3
26.05.251L
Ludogorets2
Arda2
09.05.251L
Arda1
Ludogorets1
04.12.241L
Arda0
Ludogorets4
03.08.241L
Ludogorets5
Arda1
15.04.241L
Ludogorets2
Arda0
22.10.231L
Arda0
Ludogorets0
14.04.231L
Arda1
Ludogorets2
18.09.221L
Ludogorets1
Arda1
Recent Form
Ludogorets
04.10.26CF
Ludogorets5
Cherno More0
W
27.09.26CF
Ludogorets3
Ramnicu Valcea0
W
14.09.261L
Ludogorets2
Septemvri Sofia1
W
06.09.261L
Lok. Sofia1
Ludogorets2
W
30.08.261L
Spartak Varna1
Ludogorets1
D
22.08.261L
Ludogorets1
Slavia Sofia1
D
15.08.261L
Ludogorets2
Botev Plovdiv0
W
09.08.261L
Cherno More2
Ludogorets3
W
02.08.261L
Ludogorets2
Botev Vratsa1
W
30.07.26UECL
Ludogorets2
Hapoel Tel Aviv2
D
Arda
02.10.26CF
Lok. Plovdiv2
Arda0
L
19.09.261L
Arda1
Cherno More1
D
12.09.261L
CSKA Sofia4
Arda1
L
04.09.261L
Arda2
Botev Plovdiv3
L
31.08.261L
Arda2
Botev Vratsa0
W
24.08.261L
Lok. Plovdiv0
Arda1
W
17.08.261L
Arda3
Lok. Sofia1
W
08.08.261L
Dunav Ruse0
Arda2
W
31.07.261L
CSKA 1948 Sofia2
Arda1
L
24.07.261L
Arda1
Slavia Sofia0
W
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Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Bulgaria EFBET League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.37, which our model rates near 47%. The fixture starts at 6:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ludogorets vs Arda?
Our selection is 1 — Ludogorets to win, priced at approximately 1.37. Tip confidence rating: 52%.
What is Ludogorets's current form?
Ludogorets have won 7, drawn 3 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Arda been performing recently?
Arda have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ludogorets lead with 4 wins versus Arda's 2, with 4 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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