Moderate Signal 64% Confidence
L

Ludogorets

Home
W D D W W
6W 3D 1L → Steady
VS
6:30 pm
Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad)
S
Septemvri Sofia
Away
L D W W L
3W 2D 5L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Monday, 14th September 2026
1
Backing Ludogorets to win
Implied Prob 80% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -16% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Ludogorets to win
1.25
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia Competition: Bulgaria EFBET League Date: Monday, 14th September 2026 KO: 6:30 pm Pick: 1 (Ludogorets to win) Odds: 1.25 Confidence: 64% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
9
Ludogorets
1
Draws
0
Septemvri Sofia
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
20%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Ludogorets won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Ludogorets
Metric
Septemvri Sofia
1.6
Goals For / Game
1.1
1
Goals Against / Game
1.3
30%
Clean Sheets
20%
6-3-1
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
60%
30%
2.5
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
L0
0-0 8.2%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 4.5%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
L1
1-0 11.9%
1-1 12.5%
1-2 6.6%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.1%
2-2 4.8%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 4.2%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 2.3%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.8%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.9%) 2-1(9.1%) 2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Ludogorets
Overall
6.9
Scoring
5.3
Defence
6.7
Septemvri Sofia
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
5.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 23%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 23%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 12%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
10.07.26CF
Ludogorets1
Septemvri Sofia0
15.12.25CUP
Septemvri Sofia1
Ludogorets3
23.11.251L
Septemvri Sofia0
Ludogorets2
19.07.251L
Ludogorets5
Septemvri Sofia0
03.03.251L
Ludogorets0
Septemvri Sofia0
20.10.241L
Septemvri Sofia0
Ludogorets2
30.10.221L
Ludogorets3
Septemvri Sofia1
08.07.221L
Septemvri Sofia0
Ludogorets3
04.12.19CUP
Septemvri Sofia0
Ludogorets3
16.03.191L
Ludogorets6
Septemvri Sofia0
Recent Form
Ludogorets
06.09.261L
Lok. Sofia1
Ludogorets2
W
30.08.261L
Spartak Varna1
Ludogorets1
D
22.08.261L
Ludogorets1
Slavia Sofia1
D
15.08.261L
Ludogorets2
Botev Plovdiv0
W
09.08.261L
Cherno More2
Ludogorets3
W
02.08.261L
Ludogorets2
Botev Vratsa1
W
30.07.26UECL
Ludogorets2
Hapoel Tel Aviv2
D
27.07.261L
Dunav Ruse0
Ludogorets2
W
23.07.26UECL
Hapoel Tel Aviv2
Ludogorets0
L
18.07.261L
Ludogorets1
Lok. Plovdiv0
W
Septemvri Sofia
04.09.261L
Septemvri Sofia2
Botev Vratsa3
L
28.08.261L
Slavia Sofia1
Septemvri Sofia1
D
23.08.261L
Septemvri Sofia1
CSKA 1948 Sofia0
W
17.08.261L
Spartak Varna0
Septemvri Sofia1
W
09.08.261L
Septemvri Sofia0
CSKA Sofia3
L
01.08.261L
Levski Sofia3
Septemvri Sofia0
L
26.07.261L
Lok. Plovdiv2
Septemvri Sofia1
L
18.07.261L
Septemvri Sofia1
Arda1
D
10.07.26CF
Ludogorets1
Septemvri Sofia0
L
07.07.26CF
Septemvri Sofia2
Hebar1
W
Ludogorets (Home)
22.08.261L
Ludogorets1
Slavia Sofia1
D
15.08.261L
Ludogorets2
Botev Plovdiv0
W
02.08.261L
Ludogorets2
Botev Vratsa1
W
30.07.26UECL
Ludogorets2
Hapoel Tel Aviv2
D
18.07.261L
Ludogorets1
Lok. Plovdiv0
W
10.07.26CF
Ludogorets1
Teuta0
W
10.07.26CF
Ludogorets1
Septemvri Sofia0
W
04.07.26CF
Ludogorets2
FC Botosani2
D
26.06.26CF
Ludogorets7
Etar4
W
29.05.261L
Ludogorets0
Lok. Plovdiv (3-1)0
Septemvri Sofia (Away)
28.08.261L
Slavia Sofia1
Septemvri Sofia1
D
17.08.261L
Spartak Varna0
Septemvri Sofia1
W
01.08.261L
Levski Sofia3
Septemvri Sofia0
L
26.07.261L
Lok. Plovdiv2
Septemvri Sofia1
L
10.07.26CF
Ludogorets1
Septemvri Sofia0
L
18.05.261L
Beroe0
Septemvri Sofia1
W
10.05.261L
Botev Vratsa1
Septemvri Sofia1
D
06.05.261L
Slavia Sofia2
Septemvri Sofia1
L
27.04.261L
Lok. Sofia1
Septemvri Sofia1
D
10.04.261L
Slavia Sofia1
Septemvri Sofia2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Bulgaria EFBET League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 2 draws from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Huvepharma Arena (Razgrad). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.25, which our model rates near 51%. The fixture starts at 6:30 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ludogorets vs Septemvri Sofia?
Our selection is 1 — Ludogorets to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 64%.
What is Ludogorets's current form?
Ludogorets have won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Septemvri Sofia been performing recently?
Septemvri Sofia have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ludogorets lead with 9 wins versus Septemvri Sofia's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.5 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 20%.
⚠️
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