Moderate Signal 63% Confidence
M

Metropolitano

Home
W W L W W
7W 1D 2L ▲ Improving
VS
7:00 pm
N/A
F
Fluminense-SC
Away
W L D W D
3W 2D 5L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 25th July 2026
1
Backing Metropolitano to win
Metropolitano 50%
Draw 30%
Fluminense-SC 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 71.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -8.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Metropolitano to win
1.40
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC Competition: Brazil Catarinense 2 Date: Saturday, 25th July 2026 KO: 7:00 pm Pick: 1 (Metropolitano to win) Odds: 1.40 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Metropolitano
0
Draws
1
Fluminense-SC
4
Meetings
1.8
Avg Goals
25%
BTTS
25%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Metropolitano won 3 of the last 4 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Metropolitano
Metric
Fluminense-SC
2.2
Goals For / Game
1
1.3
Goals Against / Game
1.6
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
70%
30%
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
M0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 3.1%
0-3 1.2%
0-4 0.4%
0-5 0.1%
M1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 6.0%
1-3 2.3%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
M2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.8%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
M3
3-0 5.4%
3-1 6.2%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 2.6%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 1.0%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.8%) 1-0(9.0%) 2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Metropolitano Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Fluminense-SC Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Metropolitano
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.3
Defence
5.7
Fluminense-SC
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 37%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 5%
Away Win & Over 2.5 16%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
11.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano3
06.07.25CAT2
Metropolitano1
Fluminense-SC0
11.10.18CSC
Metropolitano1
Fluminense-SC0
06.10.18CSC
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano0
Recent Form
Metropolitano
22.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus0
Metropolitano2
W
18.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano6
Jaragua-SC1
W
15.07.26CAT2
Blumenau4
Metropolitano1
L
12.07.26CAT2
Tubarao2
Metropolitano3
W
05.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Caravaggio1
W
02.07.26CAT2
Nacao0
Metropolitano0
D
21.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz3
Metropolitano0
L
14.06.26CAT2
Metropolitano3
Guarani de Palhoca1
W
11.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano3
W
30.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
W
Fluminense-SC
22.07.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC2
Tubarao1
W
19.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus3
Fluminense-SC0
L
15.07.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Guarani de Palhoca1
D
12.07.26CAT2
Nacao1
Fluminense-SC2
W
04.07.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Blumenau1
D
28.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
L
21.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Jaragua-SC0
W
14.06.26CAT2
Caravaggio1
Fluminense-SC0
L
11.06.26CAT2
Fluminense-SC1
Metropolitano3
L
31.05.26CAT2
Tubarao1
Fluminense-SC0
L
Metropolitano (Home)
18.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano6
Jaragua-SC1
W
05.07.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Caravaggio1
W
14.06.26CAT2
Metropolitano3
Guarani de Palhoca1
W
30.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano2
Gremio Juventus0
W
20.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano1
Blumenau0
W
17.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano0
Tubarao1
L
06.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano5
Nacao2
W
03.05.26CAT2
Metropolitano0
Hercilio Luz0
D
10.08.25CAT2
Metropolitano1
Carlos Renaux1
D
03.08.25CAT2
Metropolitano2
Tubarao0
W
Fluminense-SC (Away)
19.07.26CAT2
Gremio Juventus3
Fluminense-SC0
L
12.07.26CAT2
Nacao1
Fluminense-SC2
W
28.06.26CAT2
Hercilio Luz4
Fluminense-SC2
L
14.06.26CAT2
Caravaggio1
Fluminense-SC0
L
31.05.26CAT2
Tubarao1
Fluminense-SC0
L
23.05.26CAT2
Guarani de Palhoca1
Fluminense-SC0
L
10.05.26CAT2
Blumenau0
Fluminense-SC1
W
03.05.26CAT2
Jaragua-SC1
Fluminense-SC2
W
27.07.25CAT2
Porto-SC0
Fluminense-SC2
W
06.07.25CAT2
Metropolitano1
Fluminense-SC0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 25th July 2026, Metropolitano host Fluminense-SC at N/A in Brazil Catarinense 2. We recommend Metropolitano to win as the standout selection.

Metropolitano arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Fluminense-SC are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 2D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Metropolitano, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Fluminense-SC's 1, with 0 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 25% of those meetings.

Our verdict: metropolitano to win at odds of 1.40 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Brazil Catarinense 2 match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.40, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 7:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC?
Our selection is 1 — Metropolitano to win, priced at approximately 1.40. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Metropolitano's current form?
Metropolitano have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Fluminense-SC been performing recently?
Fluminense-SC have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Metropolitano lead with 3 wins versus Fluminense-SC's 1, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
⚠️
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