Moderate Signal 63% Confidence
N

Neptunas

Home
D L W W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
3:00 pm
N/A
S
Siauliai 2
Away
L L L L L
1W 2D 7L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 25th July 2026
1
Backing Neptunas to win
Neptunas 50%
Draw 30%
Siauliai 2 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -16.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Neptunas to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Neptunas vs Siauliai 2 Competition: Lithuania I Lyga Date: Saturday, 25th July 2026 KO: 3:00 pm Pick: 1 (Neptunas to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
7
Neptunas
2
Draws
0
Siauliai 2
9
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
67%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Neptunas won 7 of the last 9 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Neptunas
Metric
Siauliai 2
1.7
Goals For / Game
1
1.1
Goals Against / Game
2.4
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
1-2-7
Win Rate
70%
10%
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
N0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
N1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
N2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
N3
3-0 6.5%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
N4
4-0 3.3%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
N5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.5%) 1-0(9.2%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip N=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Neptunas Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Siauliai 2 Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Neptunas
Overall
7.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
6.3
Siauliai 2
Overall
1.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
2.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 44%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 48%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 7%
Away Win & Under 2.5 4%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.03.26IL
Siauliai 20
Neptunas0
22.07.25IL
Siauliai 22
Neptunas3
07.03.25IL
Neptunas5
Siauliai 21
23.08.24IL
Neptunas2
Siauliai 21
29.03.24IL
Siauliai 21
Neptunas2
20.08.23IL
Neptunas3
Siauliai 20
02.04.23IL
Siauliai 21
Neptunas1
21.10.22IL
Neptunas3
Siauliai 21
19.06.22IL
Siauliai 20
Neptunas2
Recent Form
Neptunas
20.07.26IL
Transinvest 22
Neptunas2
D
27.06.26IL
Dainava Alytus1
Neptunas0
L
18.06.26IL
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
W
10.06.26IL
Neptunas3
Transinvest 20
W
05.06.26IL
Ekranas1
Neptunas2
W
30.05.26IL
Neptunas1
BE1 NFA0
W
22.05.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Neptunas3
W
16.05.26IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
L
08.05.26IL
Jonava0
Neptunas1
W
02.05.26IL
Neptunas2
Zalgiris 21
W
Siauliai 2
19.07.26IL
Tauras Taurage3
Siauliai 21
L
01.07.26IL
Siauliai 21
Tauras Taurage3
L
27.06.26IL
Siauliai 20
Babrungas1
L
21.06.26IL
Dainava Alytus5
Siauliai 20
L
14.06.26IL
Siauliai 21
Transinvest 22
L
29.05.26IL
Garliava1
Siauliai 21
D
24.05.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Siauliai 20
L
17.05.26IL
Siauliai 22
Ekranas2
D
08.05.26IL
BE1 NFA5
Siauliai 22
L
03.05.26IL
Siauliai 22
Hegelmann Litauen 20
W
Neptunas (Home)
18.06.26IL
Neptunas2
Kauno Zalgiris 21
W
10.06.26IL
Neptunas3
Transinvest 20
W
30.05.26IL
Neptunas1
BE1 NFA0
W
16.05.26IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
L
02.05.26IL
Neptunas2
Zalgiris 21
W
22.04.26CUP
Neptunas0
Dziugas Telsiai2
L
17.04.26IL
Neptunas1
BFA Vilnius3
L
22.03.26IL
Neptunas1
Tauras Taurage0
W
17.03.26IL
Neptunas0
Garliava3
L
15.11.25TL
Neptunas0
Riteriai0
D
Siauliai 2 (Away)
19.07.26IL
Tauras Taurage3
Siauliai 21
L
21.06.26IL
Dainava Alytus5
Siauliai 20
L
29.05.26IL
Garliava1
Siauliai 21
D
24.05.26IL
Kauno Zalgiris 22
Siauliai 20
L
08.05.26IL
BE1 NFA5
Siauliai 22
L
25.04.26IL
FK Minija3
Siauliai 21
L
03.04.26IL
Zalgiris 24
Siauliai 20
L
17.03.26IL
BFA Vilnius1
Siauliai 20
L
20.11.25IL
Sveikata2
Siauliai 22
D
09.11.25IL
Babrungas1
Siauliai 25
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 25th July 2026, Neptunas host Siauliai 2 at N/A in Lithuania I Lyga. We recommend Neptunas to win as the standout selection.

Neptunas arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Siauliai 2 are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Neptunas, who lead the head-to-head with 7 wins to Siauliai 2's 0, with 2 draws from 9 encounters. Both teams have scored in 67% of those meetings.

Our verdict: neptunas to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Lithuania I Lyga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 5 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.26, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 3:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Neptunas vs Siauliai 2?
Our selection is 1 — Neptunas to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Neptunas's current form?
Neptunas have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Siauliai 2 been performing recently?
Siauliai 2 have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Neptunas lead with 7 wins versus Siauliai 2's 0, with 2 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 67%.
⚠️
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