Strong Signal 65% Confidence
S

Shakhtar Donetsk

Home
D W L W W
5W 4D 1L ▼ Declining
VS
4:00 pm
Arena Lviv (Lviv)
C
Ch. Odesa
Away
D W L L L
3W 2D 5L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Monday, 14th September 2026
1
Backing Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Implied Prob 77.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -12.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Shakhtar Donetsk to win
1.29
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ch. Odesa Competition: Ukraine Premier League Date: Monday, 14th September 2026 KO: 4:00 pm Pick: 1 (Shakhtar Donetsk to win) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 65% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%)
Head to Head
Record
9
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
0
Ch. Odesa
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Shakhtar Donetsk won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Shakhtar Donetsk
Metric
Ch. Odesa
1.5
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-4-1
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
50%
30%
2.1
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
S0
0-0 12.3%
0-1 9.2%
0-2 3.4%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
S1
1-0 16.5%
1-1 12.4%
1-2 4.7%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
S2
2-0 11.2%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 3.1%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
S3
3-0 5.0%
3-1 3.8%
3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.4%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
S4
4-0 1.7%
4-1 1.3%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
S5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(16.5%) 2-0(11.2%) 2-1(8.4%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Shakhtar Donetsk
Overall
6.2
Scoring
5.0
Defence
7.7
Ch. Odesa
Overall
3.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 16%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 16%
Home Win & Under 2.5 29%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 10%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
03.05.25PL
Ch. Odesa0
Shakhtar Donetsk3
02.11.24PL
Shakhtar Donetsk2
Ch. Odesa1
05.05.24PL
Shakhtar Donetsk3
Ch. Odesa0
01.05.24PL
Ch. Odesa1
Shakhtar Donetsk4
03.04.24CUP
Shakhtar Donetsk4
Ch. Odesa1
02.04.23PL
Ch. Odesa2
Shakhtar Donetsk2
10.09.22PL
Shakhtar Donetsk2
Ch. Odesa1
27.10.21CUP
Ch. Odesa0
Shakhtar Donetsk3
21.08.21PL
Ch. Odesa0
Shakhtar Donetsk3
02.03.19PL
Ch. Odesa0
Shakhtar Donetsk1
Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk
10.09.26CL
PSV1
Shakhtar Donetsk1
D
05.09.26PL
Karpaty Lviv1
Shakhtar Donetsk2
W
29.08.26PL
Shakhtar Donetsk0
Polissya Zhytomyr2
L
16.08.26PL
FC Kharkiv0
Shakhtar Donetsk1
W
09.08.26PL
Epitsentr0
Shakhtar Donetsk2
W
03.08.26PL
Shakhtar Donetsk5
Kudrivka1
W
26.07.26CF
Bursaspor0
Shakhtar Donetsk0
D
25.07.26CF
Shakhtar Donetsk0
Al-Ula0
D
23.07.26CF
Gorica0
Shakhtar Donetsk2
W
21.07.26CF
Slaven Belupo2
Shakhtar Donetsk2
D
Ch. Odesa
04.09.26PL
Ch. Odesa0
Livyi Bereg0
D
30.08.26PL
Ch. Odesa1
Kryvbas0
W
23.08.26CUP
FC Vilkhivtsi1
Ch. Odesa0
L
16.08.26PL
LNZ Cherkasy2
Ch. Odesa0
L
02.08.26PL
Ch. Odesa1
Polissya Zhytomyr2
L
25.07.26CF
Kolos Kovalivka2
Ch. Odesa2
D
25.07.26CF
Kolos Kovalivka2
Ch. Odesa1
L
18.07.26CF
Ch. Odesa2
Nyva Vinnytsya1
W
10.07.26CF
Ch. Odesa1
Inhulets0
W
04.07.26CF
Oleksandriya2
Ch. Odesa0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Ukraine Premier League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Arena Lviv (Lviv). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.29, which our model rates near 61%. The fixture starts at 4:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ch. Odesa?
Our selection is 1 — Shakhtar Donetsk to win, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Shakhtar Donetsk's current form?
Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Ch. Odesa been performing recently?
Ch. Odesa have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Shakhtar Donetsk lead with 9 wins versus Ch. Odesa's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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