LOST Tip LOST Paide 0-1 Tammeka
P

Paide

Home
L D W W W
6W 2D 2L → Steady
VS
0-1
T
Tammeka
Away
L L D L L
2W 2D 6L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 1st May 2026
1
Backing Paide to win
Paide 50%
Draw 30%
Tammeka 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 69.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -6.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Paide to win
1.44
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Paide vs Tammeka Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Friday, 1st May 2026 Pick: 1 (Paide to win) Odds: 1.44 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
Head to Head
Record
9
Paide
0
Draws
1
Tammeka
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Paide won 9 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Paide
Metric
Tammeka
2.3
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.8
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
60%
20%
3.2
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 4.7%
0-2 2.6%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 2.0%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 6.2%
3-1 6.8%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 3.2%
4-1 3.5%
4-2 1.9%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.3%
5-1 1.4%
5-2 0.8%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.0%) 1-0(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Paide Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Tammeka Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Paide
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
6.3
Tammeka
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
4.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Home Win & BTTS No 24%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
29.10.25CUP
Paide3
Tammeka0
18.10.25ML
Paide5
Tammeka0
23.08.25ML
Tammeka0
Paide1
28.06.25ML
Tammeka0
Paide2
05.04.25ML
Paide1
Tammeka0
26.10.24ML
Paide2
Tammeka0
24.08.24ML
Tammeka1
Paide3
18.05.24ML
Tammeka1
Paide2
20.04.24ML
Paide0
Tammeka1
Recent Form
Paide
26.04.26ML
Paide1
Flora2
L
22.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Paide2
D
19.04.26ML
Paide1
Kalju0
W
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
W
08.04.26ML
Paide3
Nomme Utd1
W
03.04.26ML
Kuressaare0
Paide1
W
22.03.26ML
Levadia2
Paide2
D
15.03.26ML
Paide1
Narva0
W
11.03.26CUP
Paide6
Tallinna Kalev0
W
07.03.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Paide2
L
Tammeka
25.04.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Tammeka0
L
22.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Levadia2
L
18.04.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus0
Tammeka0
D
12.04.26ML
Tammeka1
Paide4
L
07.04.26ML
Narva3
Tammeka0
L
03.04.26ML
Tammeka3
Flora1
W
21.03.26ML
Nomme Utd2
Tammeka3
W
14.03.26ML
Kuressaare3
Tammeka2
L
08.03.26ML
Tammeka0
Kalju1
L
27.02.26CF
Riga Mariners1
Tammeka1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 1st May 2026, Paide host Tammeka in Estonia Meistriliiga. We recommend Paide to win as the standout selection.

Paide arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Tammeka are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Paide, who lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Tammeka's 1, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: paide to win at odds of 1.44 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Estonia Meistriliiga fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.44 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Paide vs Tammeka?
Our selection is 1 — Paide to win, priced at approximately 1.44. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Paide's current form?
Paide have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Tammeka been performing recently?
Tammeka have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Paide lead with 9 wins versus Tammeka's 1, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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