WON Tip WON Al Ahli SC 3-1 Al Fateh
A

Al Ahli SC

Home
W L W W W
6W 1D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
3-1
A
Al Fateh
Away
D D W L L
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Wednesday, 6th May 2026
1
Backing Al Ahli SC to win
Al Ahli SC 50%
Draw 30%
Al Fateh 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 76.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -28.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Ahli SC to win
1.31
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh Competition: Saudi Professional League Date: Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Ahli SC to win) Odds: 1.31 Confidence: 48% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
3
Al Ahli SC
2
Draws
5
Al Fateh
10
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Al Ahli SC won 3 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Ahli SC
Metric
Al Fateh
3.5
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-1-3
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
60%
20%
3.7
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 2.6%
0-1 2.9%
0-2 1.6%
0-3 0.6%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
A1
1-0 6.6%
1-1 7.3%
1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.5%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
A2
2-0 8.5%
2-1 9.3%
2-2 5.1%
2-3 1.9%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 7.2%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 4.4%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 4.6%
4-1 5.0%
4-2 2.8%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 2.3%
5-1 2.6%
5-2 1.4%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.3%) 2-0(8.5%) 3-1(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Ahli SC Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Al Fateh Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Ahli SC
Overall
6.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
6.7
Al Fateh
Overall
2.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 36%
Home Win & Under 2.5 24%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.12.25SPL
Al Fateh2
Al Ahli SC1
07.02.25SPL
Al Ahli SC2
Al Fateh0
27.08.24SPL
Al Fateh1
Al Ahli SC0
02.03.24SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Fateh1
02.09.23SPL
Al Fateh5
Al Ahli SC1
11.02.22SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Ahli SC1
17.09.21SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Fateh1
20.03.21SPL
Al Fateh4
Al Ahli SC1
22.12.20SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Al Fateh0
21.02.20SPL
Al Ahli SC0
Al Fateh1
Recent Form
Al Ahli SC
03.05.26SPL
Al Ahli SC4
Al Okhdood0
W
29.04.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Ahli SC0
L
25.04.26CL
Al Ahli SC10
Machida0
W
20.04.26CL
Vissel Kobe1
Al Ahli SC2
W
17.04.26CL
Al Ahli SC2
Johor DT1
W
13.04.26CL
Al Ahli SC10
Al-Duhail0
W
08.04.26SPL
Al Fayha1
Al Ahli SC1
D
04.04.26SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Damac0
W
18.03.26KC
Al Ahli SC1
Al Hilal2
L
13.03.26SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Ahli SC2
L
Al Fateh
02.05.26SPL
Al Fateh2
Neom SC2
D
28.04.26SPL
Al Shabab1
Al Fateh1
D
24.04.26SPL
Al Fateh1
Al Khaleej0
W
05.04.26SPL
Al Okhdood1
Al Fateh0
L
14.03.26SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Hilal1
L
06.03.26SPL
Al Taawon3
Al Fateh2
L
26.02.26SPL
Al Fateh1
Damac1
D
23.02.26SPL
Al Fateh2
Al Okhdood1
W
19.02.26SPL
Al Ettifaq4
Al Fateh3
L
14.02.26SPL
Al Fateh0
Al Nassr2
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Al Ahli SC host Al Fateh in Saudi Professional League. We recommend Al Ahli SC to win as the standout selection.

Al Ahli SC arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Al Fateh are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 3D 5L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Ahli SC, who lead the head-to-head with 3 wins to Al Fateh's 5, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al ahli sc to win at odds of 1.31 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Saudi Professional League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.31 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahli SC vs Al Fateh?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ahli SC to win, priced at approximately 1.31. Tip confidence rating: 48%.
What is Al Ahli SC's current form?
Al Ahli SC have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Fateh been performing recently?
Al Fateh have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahli SC lead with 3 wins versus Al Fateh's 5, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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