WON Tip WON Lyon W 3-1 Montpellier W
L

Lyon W

Home
W D L W W
6W 2D 2L → Steady
VS
3-1
M
Montpellier W
Away
W L W L L
2W 2D 6L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Wednesday, 6th May 2026
1
Backing Lyon W to win
Lyon W 60%
Draw 20%
Montpellier W 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 78.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -8.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Lyon W to win
1.28
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Lyon W vs Montpellier W Competition: Premiere Ligue Women Date: Wednesday, 6th May 2026 Pick: 1 (Lyon W to win) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 70% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
10
Lyon W
0
Draws
0
Montpellier W
10
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Lyon W won 10 of the last 10 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Lyon W
Metric
Montpellier W
3
Goals For / Game
1
0.7
Goals Against / Game
1.9
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-2-2
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
60%
20%
3.3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
M0
M1
M2
M3
M4
M5
L0
0-0 3.7%
0-1 3.1%
0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 9.0%
1-1 7.7%
1-2 3.3%
1-3 0.9%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
L2
2-0 11.1%
2-1 9.4%
2-2 4.0%
2-3 1.1%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
L3
3-0 9.0%
3-1 7.7%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
L4
4-0 5.5%
4-1 4.7%
4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
L5
5-0 2.7%
5-1 2.3%
5-2 1.0%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-0(11.1%) 2-1(9.4%) 1-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   M=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Lyon W Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Montpellier W Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Lyon W
Overall
6.6
Scoring
10.0
Defence
7.7
Montpellier W
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.3
Defence
3.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 10%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 13%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.11.25PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon5
31.01.25PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon4
05.10.24PL
Lyon W4
Montpellier0
21.01.24PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon2
14.01.24COU
Lyon W4
Montpellier0
10.11.23PL
Lyon W5
Montpellier0
28.01.23COU
Lyon W2
Montpellier0
21.01.23PL
Lyon W2
Montpellier0
23.09.22PL
Montpellier W1
Lyon3
22.01.22PL
Montpellier W2
Lyon3
Recent Form
Lyon W
02.05.26CL
Lyon W3
Arsenal W1
W
29.04.26PL
Nantes W1
Lyon W1
D
26.04.26CL
Arsenal W2
Lyon W1
L
22.04.26PL
Lyon W4
Dijon W0
W
05.04.26COU
Strasbourg W0
Lyon W6
W
02.04.26CL
Lyon W4
Wolfsburg W0
W
28.03.26PL
Strasbourg W2
Lyon W2
D
24.03.26CL
Wolfsburg W1
Lyon W0
L
21.03.26PL
Fleury 91 W0
Lyon W2
W
18.03.26COU
Lyon W7
Le Havre W0
W
Montpellier W
25.04.26PL
Montpellier W1
St Etienne W0
W
22.04.26PL
Montpellier W0
Paris FC W2
L
28.03.26PL
Marseille W1
Montpellier W2
W
22.03.26PL
Montpellier W2
PSG W3
L
11.03.26PL
Lens W2
Montpellier W1
L
21.02.26PL
Nantes W2
Montpellier W2
D
07.02.26PL
Montpellier W1
Le Havre W2
L
31.01.26PL
Fleury 91 W1
Montpellier W0
L
24.01.26COU
PSG W5
Montpellier W0
L
17.01.26PL
Montpellier W1
Dijon W1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 6th May 2026, Lyon W host Montpellier W in Premiere Ligue Women. We recommend Lyon W to win as the standout selection.

Lyon W arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Montpellier W are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 2D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Lyon W, who lead the head-to-head with 10 wins to Montpellier W's 0, with 0 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: lyon w to win at odds of 1.28 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Premiere Ligue Women fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.28 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Lyon W vs Montpellier W?
Our selection is 1 — Lyon W to win, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 70%.
What is Lyon W's current form?
Lyon W have won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Montpellier W been performing recently?
Montpellier W have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Lyon W lead with 10 wins versus Montpellier W's 0, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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