WON Tip WON Al Ahly 2-1 Smouha
A

Al Ahly

Home
D L L L W
4W 3D 3L → Steady
VS
2-1
S
Smouha
Away
L W W L L
6W 0D 4L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 11th April 2026
1
Backing Al Ahly to win
Al Ahly 50%
Draw 30%
Smouha 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -24.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Al Ahly to win
1.35
Under 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Ahly vs Smouha Competition: Egypt Premier League Date: Saturday, 11th April 2026 Pick: 1 (Al Ahly to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 50% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (65%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Al Ahly
2
Draws
2
Smouha
10
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
40%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Al Ahly won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Ahly
Metric
Smouha
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.3
0.9
Goals Against / Game
0.8
40%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-3-3
W — D — L
6-0-4
Win Rate
40%
60%
2.1
Avg Goals
60%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
A0
0-0 12.3%
0-1 13.5%
0-2 7.4%
0-3 2.7%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
A1
1-0 12.3%
1-1 13.5%
1-2 7.4%
1-3 2.7%
1-4 0.8%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 6.1%
2-1 6.7%
2-2 3.7%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
A3
3-0 2.0%
3-1 2.3%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.5%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
A4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.3%) 2-1(6.7%) 2-0(6.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Ahly Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Smouha Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Ahly
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
7.0
Smouha
Overall
6.0
Scoring
4.3
Defence
7.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Home Win & BTTS No 21%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 21%
Away Win & BTTS No 31%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 12%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 34%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
07.01.25
Premier League: Al Ahly2
Smouha SC0
08.08.24
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
28.11.23
Premier League: Al Ahly0
Smouha SC0
17.04.23
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly2
17.01.23
Egypt Cup: Al Ahly3
Smouha SC1
25.12.22
Premier League: Al Ahly0
Smouha SC0
29.06.22
Premier League: Smouha SC3
Al Ahly2
27.01.22
League Cup: Smouha SC3
Al Ahly0
25.11.21
Premier League: Al Ahly4
Smouha SC1
Recent Form
Al Ahly
07.04.26
Premier League: Ceramica Cleopatra1
Al Ahly1
D
21.03.26
Champions League (QF): Al Ahly2
Espérance Tunis3
L
15.03.26
Champions League (QF): Espérance Tunis1
Al Ahly0
L
09.03.26
Premier League: Tala’ea El Gaish2
Al Ahly1
L
05.03.26
Premier League: Arab Contractors1
Al Ahly3
W
28.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly1
ZED FC1
D
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
W
19.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly1
El Gouna FC0
W
15.02.26
Champions League (GS): Al Ahly0
FAR Rabat0
D
11.02.26
Premier League: Al Ahly2
Ismaily SC0
W
Smouha
07.04.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
ENPPI SC2
L
07.03.26
Premier League: Smouha SC3
Modern Sport0
W
01.03.26
Premier League: National Bank of Egypt1
Smouha SC3
W
23.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC0
Al Ahly1
L
16.02.26
Premier League: Al Ittihad1
Smouha SC0
L
11.02.26
Premier League: Zamalek SC1
Smouha SC0
L
04.02.26
Premier League: Smouha SC2
Pyramids FC1
W
29.01.26
Premier League: ENPPI SC1
Smouha SC2
W
21.01.26
Premier League: Smouha SC2
Pharco FC0
W
11.01.26
Egypt Cup: Smouha SC1
Haras El Hodood0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 11th April 2026, Al Ahly host Smouha in Egypt Premier League. We recommend Al Ahly to win as the standout selection.

Al Ahly arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Smouha are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 0D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Al Ahly, who lead the head-to-head with 6 wins to Smouha's 2, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 30% of those meetings.

Our verdict: al ahly to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Egypt Premier League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.35 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahly vs Smouha?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ahly to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 50%.
What is Al Ahly's current form?
Al Ahly have won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Smouha been performing recently?
Smouha have recorded 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahly lead with 6 wins versus Smouha's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
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