Strong Signal 73% Confidence
A

Al Faisaly

Home
D W L D D
1W 4D 5L → Steady
VS
—
2:30 pm
—
Al Majma'ah Sports City (Al Majma'ah)
A
Al Nassr
Away
W W W L D
7W 1D 2L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 23rd October 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 77.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -4.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.29
Over 2.5 Goals70% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Al Faisaly vs Al Nassr Competition: Saudi Professional League Date: Friday, 23rd October 2026 KO: 2:30 pm Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.29 Confidence: 73% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (70%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
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Head to Head
Record
3
Al Faisaly
2
Draws
5
Al Nassr
10
Meetings
3.6
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Faisaly
Metric
Al Nassr
1.1
Goals For / Game
2
2
Goals Against / Game
1.2
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
1-4-5
W — D — L
7-1-2
Win Rate
10%
70%
3.2
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 8.6%
0-3 5.7%
0-4 2.9%
0-5 1.1%
A1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 9.9%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.6%
1-4 3.3%
1-5 1.3%
A2
2-0 2.8%
2-1 5.7%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 3.8%
2-4 1.9%
2-5 0.8%
A3
3-0 1.1%
3-1 2.2%
3-2 2.2%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
A4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.6%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
A5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(9.9%) 1-2(9.9%) 0-1(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Faisaly
Overall
2.2 ▼
Scoring
3.7 ▼
Defence
3.3 ▼
Al Nassr
Overall
7.3 ▲
Scoring
6.7 ▲
Defence
6.0 ▲
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 7%
Home Win & BTTS No 4%
Draw & BTTS Yes 16%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 43%
Away Win & BTTS No 23%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 7%
Home Win & Under 2.5 3%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 46%
Away Win & Under 2.5 20%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
15.01.22SPL
Al Nassr4
Al Faisaly0
19.08.21SPL
Al Faisaly2
Al Nassr1
05.05.21SPL
Al Nassr4
Al Faisaly3
04.04.21KC
Al Nassr0
Al Faisaly1
31.12.20SPL
Al Faisaly2
Al Nassr3
07.03.20SPL
Al Faisaly3
Al Nassr2
06.11.19SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Faisaly0
10.01.19SPL
Al Faisaly2
Al Nassr2
14.09.18SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Faisaly1
14.12.17SPL
Al Nassr1
Al Faisaly1
Recent Form
Al Faisaly
19.10.26SPL
Al Shabab2
Al Faisaly2
D
15.10.26SPL
Al Faisaly3
Al Kholood2
W
11.09.26SPL
Al Faisaly1
Al Ittihad3
L
08.09.26SPL
Al Ettifaq0
Al Faisaly0
D
05.09.26SPL
Al Faisaly0
Al Hazem0
D
30.08.26SPL
Al Qadsiah3
Al Faisaly1
L
26.08.26SPL
Al Faisaly1
Al Fateh1
D
21.08.26SPL
Al Faisaly0
Neom SC2
L
18.08.26KC
Al Faisaly1
Neom SC3
L
14.08.26SPL
Al Hilal4
Al Faisaly2
L
Al Nassr
20.10.26SPL
Al Nassr1
Neom SC0
W
12.10.26CL
Al Nassr3
Neftchi Fargona1
W
09.10.26SPL
Al Nassr3
Al Diriyah0
W
15.09.26CL
Al Ain4
Al Nassr0
L
12.09.26SPL
Al Khaleej1
Al Nassr1
D
09.09.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Abha1
W
05.09.26SPL
Al Ittihad2
Al Nassr1
L
28.08.26SPL
Al Nassr2
Al Taawon1
W
25.08.26SPL
Al Ettifaq2
Al Nassr3
W
21.08.26SPL
Al Riyadh0
Al Nassr4
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Saudi Professional League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 1 win, 3 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Al Majma’ah Sports City (Al Majma’ah). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward Over 2.5 at @1.29, which our model rates near 77%. The fixture starts at 2:30 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Faisaly vs Al Nassr?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.29. Tip confidence rating: 73%.
What is Al Faisaly's current form?
Al Faisaly have won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Al Nassr been performing recently?
Al Nassr have recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Faisaly lead with 3 wins versus Al Nassr's 5, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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