WON Tip WON Erbil 2-0 Diyala
E

Erbil

Home
W W W W L
5W 2D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
2-0
D
Diyala
Away
D L L L D
1W 4D 5L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Monday, 23rd March 2026
1X
Backing Erbil to win or draw
Implied Prob 84% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +16% Value detected
Kelly % 100% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1X — Erbil to win or draw
1.19
Under 2.5 Goals85% BTTS — No65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Erbil vs Diyala Competition: Iraq Stars League Date: Monday, 23rd March 2026 Pick: 1X (Erbil to win or draw) Odds: 1.19 Confidence: 100% Also: Under 2.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (65%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Erbil
2
Draws
1
Diyala
9
Meetings
2.4
Avg Goals
22%
BTTS
44%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Erbil
Metric
Diyala
0.9
Goals For / Game
0.4
0.5
Goals Against / Game
0.7
20%
Clean Sheets
0%
5-2-3
W — D — L
1-4-5
Win Rate
50%
10%
1.3
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
15%
Over 2.5
35%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
E0
0-0 28.7%
0-1 12.9%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 0.4%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 22.9%
1-1 10.3%
1-2 2.3%
1-3 0.4%
1-4 0.0%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 9.2%
2-1 4.1%
2-2 0.9%
2-3 0.1%
2-4 0.0%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 2.4%
3-1 1.1%
3-2 0.3%
3-3 0.0%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 0.2%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-0(28.7%) 1-0(22.9%) 1-1(10.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Erbil
Overall
5.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
8.3
Diyala
Overall
2.2
Scoring
1.3
Defence
7.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 36%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 21%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 8%
Home Win & Under 2.5 48%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 28%
Away Win & Over 2.5 2%
Away Win & Under 2.5 9%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
22.12.25
SL: Diyala1
Erbil1
12.05.25
SL: Diyala1
Erbil0
20.09.24
SL: Erbil2
Diyala1
16.04.11
SL: Erbil4
Diyala0
31.03.11
SL: Diyala0
Erbil0
15.06.10
SL: Erbil5
Diyala0
27.02.10
SL: Diyala0
Erbil3
10.05.09
SL: Erbil2
Diyala0
17.01.09
SL: Diyala0
Erbil2
Recent Form
Erbil
18.03.26
SL: DUH0
ERB2
W
13.03.26
SL: ERB3
MIN2
W
07.03.26
SL: KAR2
ERB3
W
21.02.26
SL: QAS0
ERB2
W
14.02.26
SL: ERB0
ZAK1
L
05.02.26
SL: ERB3
NFT1
W
31.01.26
SL: BAG1
ERB1
D
27.01.26
SL: KRK1
ERB1
D
23.01.26
SL: ERB0
TAL2
L
17.01.26
SL: ZAW1
ERB0
L
Diyala
18.03.26
SL: MIN1
DIY1
D
13.03.26
SL: DIY0
QWJ1
L
07.03.26
SL: DIY0
KAH2
L
21.02.26
SL: SHR2
DIY1
L
14.02.26
SL: DIY1
KAR1
D
04.02.26
SL: DIY1
KRK0
W
31.01.26
SL: NWZ2
DIY1
L
27.01.26
SL: TAL1
DIY1
D
22.01.26
SL: DIY1
AGF1
D
17.01.26
SL: DUH1
DIY0
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Iraq Stars League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1X, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.19 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Erbil vs Diyala?
Our selection is 1X — Erbil to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.19. Tip confidence rating: 100%.
What is Erbil's current form?
Erbil have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Diyala been performing recently?
Diyala have recorded 1 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Erbil lead with 6 wins versus Diyala's 1, with 2 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 22%.
⚠️
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