Moderate Signal 62% Confidence
E

Ethiopia W

Home
W W W L L
6W 0D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
—
2:00 pm
—
N/A
R
Rwanda W
Away
L D L L L
1W 3D 6L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 13th October 2026
1
Backing Ethiopia W to win
Implied Prob 63.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -1.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Ethiopia W to win
1.58
BTTS — No85% Ethiopia W Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Ethiopia W vs Rwanda W Competition: Africa Olympic Qualifier (Women) Date: Tuesday, 13th October 2026 KO: 2:00 pm Pick: 1 (Ethiopia W to win) Odds: 1.58 Confidence: 62% Also: BTTS — No (85%) Also: Ethiopia W Clean Sheet (60%)
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Head to Head
Record
3
Ethiopia W
0
Draws
0
Rwanda W
3
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
33%
BTTS
67%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Ethiopia W won 3 of the last 3 meetings (0 draws).
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Ethiopia W
Metric
Rwanda W
4.6
Goals For / Game
0.8
0.9
Goals Against / Game
2.2
60%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-0-4
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
60%
10%
4.3
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
15%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
E0
0-0 1.4%
0-1 1.2%
0-2 0.5%
0-3 0.2%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
E1
1-0 4.9%
1-1 4.1%
1-2 1.8%
1-3 0.5%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
E2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 7.0%
2-2 3.0%
2-3 0.8%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
E3
3-0 9.3%
3-1 7.9%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.0%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
E4
4-0 7.9%
4-1 6.8%
4-2 2.9%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
E5
5-0 5.4%
5-1 4.6%
5-2 2.0%
5-3 0.6%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 3-0(9.3%) 2-0(8.2%) 3-1(7.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip E=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Ethiopia W
Overall
6.0 ▼
Scoring
10.0 ▼
Defence
7.0 ▼
Rwanda W
Overall
1.9 ▲
Scoring
2.7 ▲
Defence
2.7 ▲
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Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Home Win & BTTS No 60%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 2%
Away Win & BTTS No 9%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 32%
Home Win & Under 2.5 39%
Draw & Over 2.5 8%
Draw & Under 2.5 10%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
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Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.10.26OG
Rwanda W0
Ethiopia1
23.07.18CHA
Rwanda W0
Ethiopia3
14.09.16CHA
Rwanda W2
Ethiopia3
Recent Form
Ethiopia W
07.10.26OG
Rwanda W0
Ethiopia W1
W
03.10.26FI
Ethiopia W10
Seychelles W0
W
30.09.26FI
Ethiopia W16
Seychelles W0
W
28.10.25ACN
Ethiopia W0
Tanzania W1
L
22.10.25ACN
Tanzania W2
Ethiopia W0
L
26.02.25ACN
Ethiopia W2
Uganda W (5-4)0
21.02.25ACN
Uganda W2
Ethiopia W0
L
16.02.25FI
Ethiopia W7
Djibouti W0
W
12.02.25FI
Ethiopia W10
Djibouti W0
W
31.10.23OG
Nigeria W4
Ethiopia W0
L
Rwanda W
07.10.26OG
Rwanda W0
Ethiopia W1
L
25.02.25ACN
Egypt W2
Rwanda W2
D
21.02.25ACN
Rwanda W0
Egypt W1
L
26.09.23ACN
Ghana W5
Rwanda W0
L
20.09.23ACN
Rwanda W0
Ghana W7
L
16.09.23FI
Rwanda W1
Burundi W1
D
15.09.23FI
Rwanda W0
Burundi W1
L
16.07.23OG
Rwanda W0
Uganda W1
L
12.07.23OG
Uganda W3
Rwanda W3
D
05.06.22CHA
Rwanda W2
Djibouti W0
W
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Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Africa Olympic Qualifier (Women) match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.58, which our model rates near 49%. The fixture starts at 2:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Ethiopia W vs Rwanda W?
Our selection is 1 — Ethiopia W to win, priced at approximately 1.58. Tip confidence rating: 62%.
What is Ethiopia W's current form?
Ethiopia W have won 6, drawn 0 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Rwanda W been performing recently?
Rwanda W have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Ethiopia W lead with 3 wins versus Rwanda W's 0, with 0 draws across 3 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 4.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 33%.
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