Strong Signal 78% Confidence
H

Harju JK Laagri

Home
W W D W L
6W 1D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
—
4:00 pm
—
Laagri kunstmurustaadion (Laagri)
N
Nomme Utd
Away
L L L W L
3W 0D 7L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 13th October 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 78.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -0.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.28
Over 2.5 Goals65%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Harju JK Laagri vs Nomme Utd Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Tuesday, 13th October 2026 KO: 4:00 pm Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.28 Confidence: 78% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%)
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Head to Head
Record
6
Harju JK Laagri
0
Draws
4
Nomme Utd
10
Meetings
4.1
Avg Goals
80%
BTTS
90%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 90% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Harju JK Laagri
Metric
Nomme Utd
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
2.1
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-1-3
W — D — L
3-0-7
Win Rate
60%
30%
3.3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
H0
0-0 3.9%
0-1 4.3%
0-2 2.4%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.1%
H1
1-0 8.3%
1-1 9.2%
1-2 5.0%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
H2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.4%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
H3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 7.1%
3-2 3.9%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
H4
4-0 3.5%
4-1 3.8%
4-2 2.1%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 1.5%
5-1 1.6%
5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 1-1(9.2%) 2-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Harju JK Laagri
Overall
6.3 —
Scoring
7.3 —
Defence
6.7 —
Nomme Utd
Overall
3.0 ▲
Scoring
4.0 ▲
Defence
3.0 ▲
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 35%
Home Win & BTTS No 28%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 2%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 41%
Home Win & Under 2.5 22%
Draw & Over 2.5 3%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
29.08.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Harju JK Laagri2
20.06.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Nomme Utd3
18.04.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Harju JK Laagri2
30.10.25CUP
Harju JK Laagri0
Nomme Utd1
09.02.25CF
Harju JK Laagri3
Nomme Utd2
14.08.24CUP
Harju JK Laagri3
Nomme Utd0
22.10.22ESI
Harju JK Laagri5
Nomme Utd1
04.09.22ESI
Nomme Utd4
Harju JK Laagri1
28.04.22ESI
Harju JK Laagri4
Nomme Utd2
10.04.22ESI
Nomme Utd3
Harju JK Laagri2
Recent Form
Harju JK Laagri
10.10.26ML
Kalju0
Harju JK Laagri1
W
03.10.26CUP
FC Tallinn0
Harju JK Laagri10
W
18.09.26ML
Harju JK Laagri0
Kuressaare0
D
13.09.26ML
Paide1
Harju JK Laagri2
W
09.09.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus3
Harju JK Laagri2
L
06.09.26ML
Harju JK Laagri0
Tammeka2
L
29.08.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Harju JK Laagri2
W
22.08.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Kalju0
W
16.08.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Levadia2
L
11.08.26CUP
Harju JK Laagri3
Tamper1
W
Nomme Utd
10.10.26ML
Tammeka4
Nomme Utd0
L
19.09.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Paide3
L
12.09.26ML
Nomme Utd2
Flora3
L
08.09.26ML
Kalju1
Nomme Utd2
W
05.09.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Nomme Utd0
L
02.09.26CUP
Nomme Utd3
Parnu JK Vaprus2
W
29.08.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Harju JK Laagri2
L
23.08.26ML
Paide4
Nomme Utd1
L
19.08.26CUP
Hiiumaa0
Nomme Utd2
W
14.08.26ML
Nomme Utd0
Tammeka1
L
Harju JK Laagri (Home)
18.09.26ML
Harju JK Laagri0
Kuressaare0
D
06.09.26ML
Harju JK Laagri0
Tammeka2
L
22.08.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Kalju0
W
16.08.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Levadia2
L
11.08.26CUP
Harju JK Laagri3
Tamper1
W
23.07.26CUP
Harju JK Laagri8
Rae Spordikool0
W
19.07.26ML
Harju JK Laagri5
Paide2
W
10.07.26ML
Harju JK Laagri3
Narva0
W
20.06.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Nomme Utd3
L
13.06.26ML
Harju JK Laagri2
Kuressaare3
L
Nomme Utd (Away)
10.10.26ML
Tammeka4
Nomme Utd0
L
08.09.26ML
Kalju1
Nomme Utd2
W
05.09.26ML
Parnu JK Vaprus1
Nomme Utd0
L
23.08.26ML
Paide4
Nomme Utd1
L
19.08.26CUP
Hiiumaa0
Nomme Utd2
W
09.08.26ML
Levadia5
Nomme Utd0
L
17.07.26ML
Flora1
Nomme Utd2
W
20.06.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Nomme Utd3
W
13.06.26ML
Narva1
Nomme Utd2
W
20.05.26ML
Kuressaare2
Nomme Utd1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Estonia Meistriliiga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Laagri kunstmurustaadion (Laagri). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward Over 2.5 at @1.28, which our model rates near roughly 80. The fixture starts at 4:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Harju JK Laagri vs Nomme Utd?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.28. Tip confidence rating: 78%.
What is Harju JK Laagri's current form?
Harju JK Laagri have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Nomme Utd been performing recently?
Nomme Utd have recorded 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Harju JK Laagri lead with 6 wins versus Nomme Utd's 4, with 0 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 80%.
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