Strong Signal 65% Confidence
F

Falcon U20

Home
W W W L W
7W 0D 3L → Steady
VS
7:00 pm
N/A
G
Guarany SE U20
Away
D D W W L
4W 2D 4L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Wednesday, 23rd September 2026
1
Backing Falcon U20 to win
Implied Prob 74.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -9.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Falcon U20 to win
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals85% BTTS — No75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Falcon U20 vs Guarany SE U20 Competition: Brazil Sergipano U20 Date: Wednesday, 23rd September 2026 KO: 7:00 pm Pick: 1 (Falcon U20 to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 65% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%) Also: BTTS — No (75%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Falcon U20
0
Draws
0
Guarany SE U20
1
Meetings
4
Avg Goals
100%
BTTS
100%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Falcon U20 won 1 of the last 1 meetings (0 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Falcon U20
Metric
Guarany SE U20
1.8
Goals For / Game
2
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.5
50%
Clean Sheets
50%
7-0-3
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
70%
40%
3.1
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
25%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
G0
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
F0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.8%
0-5 0.2%
F1
1-0 7.4%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.8%
1-4 1.4%
1-5 0.4%
F2
2-0 6.1%
2-1 8.9%
2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.1%
2-4 1.1%
2-5 0.3%
F3
3-0 3.4%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 3.6%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.6%
3-5 0.2%
F4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
F5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(8.9%) 1-0(7.4%) 2-0(6.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   G=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Falcon U20
Overall
7.0
Scoring
6.0
Defence
7.0
Guarany SE U20
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.7
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 15%
Home Win & BTTS No 44%
Draw & BTTS Yes 2%
Draw & BTTS No 6%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Away Win & BTTS No 26%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
28.05.25SER
Guarany SE U201
Falcon U203
Recent Form
Falcon U20
19.09.26SER
Itabaiana U200
Falcon U204
W
16.09.26SER
Falcon U202
Confianca U201
W
12.09.26SER
Falcon U202
Lagarto U200
W
09.09.26COP
Sergipe U201
Falcon U200
L
05.09.26SER
Sergipe U200
Falcon U202
W
08.01.26CPH
Falcon U203
Galvez U200
W
05.01.26CPH
Votuporanguense U203
Falcon U200
L
02.01.26CPH
Gremio U203
Falcon U200
L
05.06.25SER
Falcon U202
Sergipe U200
W
01.06.25SER
Falcon U203
Itabaiana U201
W
Guarany SE U20
19.09.26SER
Guarany SE U200
Confianca U200
D
12.09.26SER
Sergipe U205
Guarany SE U205
D
09.09.26SER
Guarany SE U203
Atletico Gloriense U200
W
05.09.26SER
Desportiva Aracaju U200
Guarany SE U203
W
28.05.25SER
Guarany SE U201
Falcon U203
L
26.05.25SER
Dorense U200
Guarany SE U202
W
18.05.25SER
Barra SE U200
Guarany SE U205
W
10.05.25SER
Guarany SE U200
America SE U202
L
01.05.25SER
Guarany SE U200
Carmopolis U201
L
28.04.25SER
Itabaiana U204
Guarany SE U201
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Brazil Sergipano U20 match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 4 wins, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.35, which our model rates near 48%. The fixture starts at 7:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Falcon U20 vs Guarany SE U20?
Our selection is 1 — Falcon U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 65%.
What is Falcon U20's current form?
Falcon U20 have won 7, drawn 0 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Guarany SE U20 been performing recently?
Guarany SE U20 have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Falcon U20 lead with 1 wins versus Guarany SE U20's 0, with 0 draws across 1 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.
⚠️
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