Moderate Signal 51% Confidence
F

FK Minija

Home
W W W W D
8W 1D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
4:00 pm
N/A
J
Jonava
Away
L W D D L
1W 3D 6L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 18th July 2026
1
Backing FK Minija to win
FK Minija 50%
Draw 30%
Jonava 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -29% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
2
FK Minija
2
Draws
6
Jonava
10
Meetings
2.8
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Against Tip FK Minija won 2 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
FK Minija
Metric
Jonava
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.5
0.6
Goals Against / Game
1.6
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-1-1
W — D — L
1-3-6
Win Rate
80%
10%
2.3
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
F0
0-0 10.0%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 1.5%
0-3 0.3%
0-4 0.0%
0-5 0.0%
F1
1-0 17.6%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 2.7%
1-3 0.5%
1-4 0.1%
1-5 0.0%
F2
2-0 15.4%
2-1 8.4%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 0.4%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
F3
3-0 9.0%
3-1 4.9%
3-2 1.4%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
F4
4-0 3.9%
4-1 2.2%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
F5
5-0 1.4%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(17.6%) 2-0(15.4%) 3-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip F=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
FK Minija Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Jonava Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
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Team Ratings
Grades
FK Minija
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
8.0
Jonava
Overall
1.9
Scoring
1.7
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 33%
Home Win & BTTS No 40%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 4%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 37%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 5%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
07.06.26IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
18.10.25IL
FK Minija0
Jonava1
13.06.25IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
19.08.23IL
Jonava1
FK Minija2
01.04.23IL
FK Minija3
Jonava0
24.09.21IL
Jonava8
FK Minija0
12.06.21IL
FK Minija1
Jonava2
06.06.20IL
FK Minija1
Jonava2
31.08.19IL
Jonava4
FK Minija1
11.05.19IL
FK Minija0
Jonava2
Recent Form
FK Minija
26.06.26IL
Garliava0
FK Minija1
W
23.06.26CUP
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
W
20.06.26IL
Atmosfera0
FK Minija1
W
13.06.26IL
FK Minija3
BFA Vilnius0
W
07.06.26IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
D
29.05.26IL
Babrungas1
FK Minija0
L
23.05.26IL
FK Minija2
Tauras Taurage1
W
19.05.26CUP
Pempininkai1
FK Minija (AET)4
W
16.05.26IL
Neptunas1
FK Minija3
W
09.05.26IL
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus1
W
Jonava
27.06.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Jonava1
L
21.06.26IL
Zalgiris 21
Jonava2
W
12.06.26IL
Jonava1
Atmosfera1
D
07.06.26IL
Jonava0
FK Minija0
D
30.05.26IL
BFA Vilnius1
Jonava0
L
22.05.26IL
Jonava1
Babrungas1
D
16.05.26IL
Tauras Taurage2
Jonava0
L
08.05.26IL
Jonava0
Neptunas1
L
02.05.26IL
Dainava Alytus3
Jonava0
L
29.04.26CUP
Jonava0
FA Siauliai4
L
FK Minija (Home)
23.06.26CUP
FK Minija2
FK Panevezys1
W
13.06.26IL
FK Minija3
BFA Vilnius0
W
23.05.26IL
FK Minija2
Tauras Taurage1
W
09.05.26IL
FK Minija3
Dainava Alytus1
W
25.04.26IL
FK Minija3
Siauliai 21
W
04.04.26IL
FK Minija2
Ekranas1
W
18.03.26IL
FK Minija3
Hegelmann Litauen 20
W
14.03.26IL
FK Minija4
Zalgiris 20
W
09.11.25IL
FK Minija0
BE1 NFA3
L
Jonava (Away)
27.06.26IL
Hegelmann Litauen 22
Jonava1
L
21.06.26IL
Zalgiris 21
Jonava2
W
30.05.26IL
BFA Vilnius1
Jonava0
L
16.05.26IL
Tauras Taurage2
Jonava0
L
02.05.26IL
Dainava Alytus3
Jonava0
L
19.04.26IL
Siauliai 22
Jonava2
D
21.03.26IL
Ekranas1
Jonava2
W
14.03.26IL
Garliava2
Jonava0
L
31.10.25IL
Zalgiris 20
Jonava0
D
18.10.25IL
FK Minija0
Jonava1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Saturday, 18th July 2026, FK Minija host Jonava at N/A in Lithuania 1 Lyga. We recommend FK Minija to win as the standout selection.

FK Minija arrive in strong form, having recorded 8 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Jonava are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 3D 6L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour FK Minija, who lead the head-to-head with 2 wins to Jonava's 6, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: fk minija to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Lithuania 1 Lyga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.25, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 4:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for FK Minija vs Jonava?
Our selection is 1 — FK Minija to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 51%.
What is FK Minija's current form?
FK Minija have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Jonava been performing recently?
Jonava have recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
FK Minija lead with 2 wins versus Jonava's 6, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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