Moderate Signal 60% Confidence
H

Hamilton

Home
W W W W W
7W 1D 2L ▼ Declining
VS
—
5:30 pm
—
ZLX Stadium (Hamilton)
P
Peterhead
Away
L W L L W
4W 1D 5L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 3rd October 2026
1
Backing Hamilton to win
Implied Prob 69.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -9.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Hamilton to win
1.44
Hamilton Clean Sheet70%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Hamilton vs Peterhead Competition: Scotland League One Date: Saturday, 3rd October 2026 KO: 5:30 pm Pick: 1 (Hamilton to win) Odds: 1.44 Confidence: 60% Also: Hamilton Clean Sheet (70%)
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Head to Head
Record
6
Hamilton
2
Draws
2
Peterhead
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Hamilton won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Hamilton
Metric
Peterhead
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.1
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.6
70%
Clean Sheets
10%
7-1-2
W — D — L
4-1-5
Win Rate
70%
40%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
H0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 6.3%
0-2 2.5%
0-3 0.7%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
H1
1-0 13.7%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.2%
1-5 0.0%
H2
2-0 12.0%
2-1 9.6%
2-2 3.8%
2-3 1.0%
2-4 0.2%
2-5 0.0%
H3
3-0 7.0%
3-1 5.6%
3-2 2.2%
3-3 0.6%
3-4 0.1%
3-5 0.0%
H4
4-0 3.1%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
H5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(13.7%) 2-0(12.0%) 2-1(9.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
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Team Ratings
Grades
Hamilton
Overall
7.3 ▼
Scoring
6.3 ▼
Defence
8.3 ▼
Peterhead
Overall
4.3 —
Scoring
3.7 —
Defence
4.7 —
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 23%
Home Win & BTTS No 35%
Draw & BTTS Yes 3%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 20%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 20%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
11.07.26LC
Peterhead0
Hamilton1
25.04.26LO
Hamilton3
Peterhead1
17.01.26LO
Peterhead2
Hamilton3
08.11.25LO
Hamilton3
Peterhead0
13.09.25LO
Peterhead2
Hamilton2
13.08.01CUP
Peterhead2
Hamilton0
17.03.01LT
Peterhead2
Hamilton1
20.01.01LT
Hamilton3
Peterhead0
11.11.00LT
Peterhead1
Hamilton1
22.09.00LT
Hamilton3
Peterhead0
Recent Form
Hamilton
26.09.26CUP
Hamilton3
Kilmarnock B0
W
23.09.26CUP
Hamilton1
Cowdenbeath0
W
19.09.26LO
Hamilton4
Queen of South1
W
08.09.26CUP
Spartans0
Hamilton4
W
05.09.26LO
East Kilbride0
Hamilton1
W
29.08.26LO
Hamilton1
Cove Rangers0
W
25.08.26CUP
Hamilton0
Edinburgh City1
L
22.08.26LO
East Fife0
Hamilton0
D
15.08.26LO
Hamilton4
Airdrieonians0
W
12.08.26CUP
Hamilton1
Celtic B3
L
Peterhead
26.09.26CUP
Peterhead0
Elgin City1
L
22.09.26CUP
Forfar Athletic0
Peterhead2
W
19.09.26LO
Peterhead1
Airdrieonians2
L
12.09.26LO
East Kilbride3
Peterhead1
L
08.09.26CUP
Peterhead2
Clachnacuddin1
W
05.09.26LO
Peterhead0
Montrose3
L
29.08.26LO
Alloa1
Peterhead1
D
25.08.26CUP
Peterhead2
Dundee FC B1
W
22.08.26LO
Cove Rangers3
Peterhead0
L
15.08.26LO
Peterhead2
East Fife1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Scotland League One match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 5 wins from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into ZLX Stadium (Hamilton). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.44, which our model rates near 52%. The fixture starts at 5:30 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Hamilton vs Peterhead?
Our selection is 1 — Hamilton to win, priced at approximately 1.44. Tip confidence rating: 60%.
What is Hamilton's current form?
Hamilton have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Peterhead been performing recently?
Peterhead have recorded 4 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Hamilton lead with 6 wins versus Peterhead's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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