Moderate Signal 54% Confidence
H

HB Torshavn

Home
W W L L W
5W 1D 4L ▼ Declining
VS
3:00 pm
Gundadalur (Torshavn)
T
Toftir
Away
L W L L L
2W 1D 7L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Sunday, 16th August 2026
1
Backing HB Torshavn to win
HB Torshavn 50%
Draw 30%
Toftir 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 78.7% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -24.7% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
6
HB Torshavn
1
Draws
2
Toftir
9
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
56%
BTTS
56%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip HB Torshavn won 6 of the last 9 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
HB Torshavn
Metric
Toftir
1.7
Goals For / Game
1
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1.7
30%
Clean Sheets
10%
5-1-4
W — D — L
2-1-7
Win Rate
50%
20%
3
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
H0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 6.5%
0-2 4.1%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
H1
1-0 8.9%
1-1 11.1%
1-2 7.0%
1-3 2.9%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
H2
2-0 7.6%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
H3
3-0 4.3%
3-1 5.4%
3-2 3.4%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
H4
4-0 1.8%
4-1 2.3%
4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
H5
5-0 0.6%
5-1 0.8%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(8.9%) 2-0(7.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
HB Torshavn Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Toftir Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
HB Torshavn
Overall
5.3
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.0
Toftir
Overall
2.3
Scoring
3.3
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 38%
Draw & BTTS Yes 5%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 28%
Draw & Over 2.5 7%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.05.26PL
Toftir0
HB Torshavn1
19.04.26PL
Toftir3
HB Torshavn1
03.10.25PL
HB Torshavn5
Toftir1
14.06.25PL
Toftir1
HB Torshavn4
07.03.25PL
HB Torshavn3
Toftir2
18.08.24PL
HB Torshavn1
Toftir0
28.06.24PL
Toftir1
HB Torshavn0
08.04.24PL
Toftir0
HB Torshavn1
30.09.23PL
HB Torshavn3
Toftir3
Recent Form
HB Torshavn
10.08.26PL
Klaksvik0
HB Torshavn2
W
03.08.26PL
HB Torshavn3
NSI Runavik1
W
30.07.26UECL
HB Torshavn0
Motherwell3
L
23.07.26UECL
Motherwell2
HB Torshavn0
L
05.07.26PL
07 Vestur Sorvagur1
HB Torshavn4
W
29.06.26PL
HB Torshavn4
Skala Itrottarfelag1
W
25.06.26CUP
Vikingur4
HB Torshavn0
L
21.06.26PL
B36 Torshavn0
HB Torshavn3
W
14.06.26PL
AB Argir3
HB Torshavn1
L
30.05.26PL
HB Torshavn0
Vikingur0
D
Toftir
09.08.26PL
Vikingur2
Toftir1
L
02.08.26PL
Toftir2
07 Vestur Sorvagur1
W
04.07.26PL
Skala Itrottarfelag1
Toftir0
L
29.06.26PL
Toftir0
AB Argir1
L
20.06.26PL
NSI Runavik1
Toftir0
L
14.06.26PL
Streymur2
Toftir0
L
30.05.26PL
Toftir4
B36 Torshavn4
D
26.05.26PL
Toftir0
HB Torshavn1
L
17.05.26PL
Toftir1
Klaksvik4
L
10.05.26PL
07 Vestur Sorvagur0
Toftir2
W
HB Torshavn (Home)
03.08.26PL
HB Torshavn3
NSI Runavik1
W
30.07.26UECL
HB Torshavn0
Motherwell3
L
29.06.26PL
HB Torshavn4
Skala Itrottarfelag1
W
30.05.26PL
HB Torshavn0
Vikingur0
D
18.05.26PL
HB Torshavn3
Streymur4
L
14.05.26CUP
HB Torshavn2
Vikingur1
W
03.05.26PL
HB Torshavn1
AB Argir1
D
29.04.26CUP
HB Torshavn3
B36 Torshavn1
W
26.04.26PL
HB Torshavn0
Klaksvik2
L
15.04.26CUP
HB Torshavn2
Sandur0
W
Toftir (Away)
09.08.26PL
Vikingur2
Toftir1
L
04.07.26PL
Skala Itrottarfelag1
Toftir0
L
20.06.26PL
NSI Runavik1
Toftir0
L
14.06.26PL
Streymur2
Toftir0
L
10.05.26PL
07 Vestur Sorvagur0
Toftir2
W
26.04.26PL
Vikingur2
Toftir2
D
11.04.26PL
Klaksvik6
Toftir1
L
21.03.26PL
B36 Torshavn6
Toftir0
L
07.03.26PL
AB Argir2
Toftir0
L
25.10.25PL
TB Tvoroyri1
Toftir1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Faroe Islands PL match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Gundadalur (Torshavn). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 win, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.27, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 3:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for HB Torshavn vs Toftir?
Our selection is 1 — HB Torshavn to win, priced at approximately 1.27. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is HB Torshavn's current form?
HB Torshavn have won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Toftir been performing recently?
Toftir have recorded 2 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
HB Torshavn lead with 6 wins versus Toftir's 2, with 1 draws across 9 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 56%.
⚠️
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