Moderate Signal 61% Confidence
H

HJK

Home
L W D L W
6W 1D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
2:00 pm
Bolt Arena (Helsinki)
J
Jaro
Away
L L W D W
2W 2D 6L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Sunday, 16th August 2026
1
Backing HJK to win
HJK 50%
Draw 30%
Jaro 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -14.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — HJK to win
1.33
Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
HJK vs Jaro Competition: Finland Veikkausliiga Date: Sunday, 16th August 2026 KO: 2:00 pm Pick: 1 (HJK to win) Odds: 1.33 Confidence: 61% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
8
HJK
1
Draws
1
Jaro
10
Meetings
3.8
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip HJK won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
HJK
Metric
Jaro
1.5
Goals For / Game
1.1
1
Goals Against / Game
2.3
40%
Clean Sheets
10%
6-1-3
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
60%
20%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
J0
J1
J2
J3
J4
J5
H0
0-0 5.2%
0-1 5.5%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.0%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
H1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 5.5%
1-3 1.9%
1-4 0.5%
1-5 0.1%
H2
2-0 9.5%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
H3
3-0 6.0%
3-1 6.3%
3-2 3.3%
3-3 1.2%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
H4
4-0 2.8%
4-1 3.0%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
H5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.1%
5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.9%) 2-0(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip H=Home goals ↓   J=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
HJK Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Jaro Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
HJK
Overall
6.3
Scoring
5.0
Defence
6.7
Jaro
Overall
2.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
2.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 25%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 13%
Away Win & Under 2.5 8%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.06.26VEI
Jaro2
HJK5
02.07.25VEI
HJK2
Jaro3
11.05.25VEI
Jaro0
HJK3
13.09.15VEI
Jaro1
HJK1
22.06.15VEI
HJK4
Jaro0
03.05.15VEI
HJK3
Jaro0
31.08.14VEI
Jaro1
HJK4
08.06.14VEI
Jaro0
HJK2
06.04.14VEI
HJK1
Jaro0
01.09.13VEI
Jaro1
HJK5
Recent Form
HJK
13.08.26UECL
Motherwell2
HJK0
L
09.08.26VEI
AC Oulu0
HJK1
W
06.08.26UECL
HJK1
Motherwell1
D
03.08.26VEI
SJK3
HJK0
L
30.07.26UECL
Coleraine0
HJK3
W
26.07.26VEI
HJK1
TPS0
W
23.07.26UECL
HJK5
Coleraine0
W
18.07.26VEI
HJK2
VPS1
W
11.07.26VEI
Lahti2
HJK0
L
01.07.26CUP
HJK2
Ilves1
W
Jaro
08.08.26VEI
Jaro1
VPS3
L
01.08.26VEI
Lahti2
Jaro0
L
24.07.26VEI
Jaro2
SJK1
W
19.07.26VEI
Jaro0
Inter Turku0
D
04.07.26VEI
Jaro2
Ilves1
W
27.06.26VEI
TPS3
Jaro2
L
23.06.26VEI
Jaro1
Gnistan1
D
17.06.26VEI
Ilves5
Jaro0
L
13.06.26VEI
Jaro2
HJK5
L
31.05.26VEI
AC Oulu2
Jaro1
L
HJK (Home)
06.08.26UECL
HJK1
Motherwell1
D
26.07.26VEI
HJK1
TPS0
W
23.07.26UECL
HJK5
Coleraine0
W
18.07.26VEI
HJK2
VPS1
W
01.07.26CUP
HJK2
Ilves1
W
27.06.26VEI
HJK0
KuPS4
L
17.06.26VEI
HJK3
Inter Turku3
D
30.05.26VEI
HJK1
Mariehamn0
W
26.05.26CUP
HJK11
MyPa1
W
16.05.26VEI
HJK2
Ilves2
D
Jaro (Away)
01.08.26VEI
Lahti2
Jaro0
L
27.06.26VEI
TPS3
Jaro2
L
17.06.26VEI
Ilves5
Jaro0
L
31.05.26VEI
AC Oulu2
Jaro1
L
20.05.26VEI
KuPS3
Jaro0
L
16.05.26VEI
Gnistan5
Jaro0
L
13.05.26CUP
VJS5
Jaro3
L
09.05.26VEI
Inter Turku2
Jaro0
L
28.04.26CUP
GBK Kokkola0
Jaro2
W
24.04.26VEI
SJK1
Jaro1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Finland Veikkausliiga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into Bolt Arena (Helsinki). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.33, which our model rates near 50,30,20%. The fixture starts at 2:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for HJK vs Jaro?
Our selection is 1 — HJK to win, priced at approximately 1.33. Tip confidence rating: 61%.
What is HJK's current form?
HJK have won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Jaro been performing recently?
Jaro have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
HJK lead with 8 wins versus Jaro's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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