Strong Signal 79% Confidence
L

Levadia

Home
W D W W W
9W 1D 0L → Steady
VS
—
12:30 pm
—
A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn)
P
Paide
Away
W W L W L
5W 1D 4L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Sunday, 11th October 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 69.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +9.1% Value detected
Kelly % 30.2% Suggested bankroll %
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Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.43
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals100% Levadia Clean Sheet60%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Levadia vs Paide Competition: Estonia Meistriliiga Date: Sunday, 11th October 2026 KO: 12:30 pm Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.43 Confidence: 79% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (100%) Also: Levadia Clean Sheet (60%)
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Head to Head
Record
6
Levadia
1
Draws
3
Paide
10
Meetings
3.1
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 80% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Levadia
Metric
Paide
4
Goals For / Game
1.6
0.5
Goals Against / Game
1.4
60%
Clean Sheets
20%
9-1-0
W — D — L
5-1-4
Win Rate
90%
50%
3.8
Avg Goals
100%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
L0
0-0 2.4%
0-1 2.5%
0-2 1.3%
0-3 0.5%
0-4 0.1%
0-5 0.0%
L1
1-0 6.4%
1-1 6.7%
1-2 3.5%
1-3 1.2%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
L2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.7%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
L3
3-0 7.7%
3-1 8.1%
3-2 4.3%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
L4
4-0 5.2%
4-1 5.5%
4-2 2.9%
4-3 1.0%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
L5
5-0 2.8%
5-1 3.0%
5-2 1.6%
5-3 0.5%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.0%) 2-0(8.6%) 3-1(8.1%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip L=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Levadia
Overall
9.3 ▲
Scoring
10.0 ▲
Defence
8.3 ▲
Paide
Overall
5.3 ▼
Scoring
5.3 ▼
Defence
5.3 ▼
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 4%
Draw & BTTS No 4%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 17%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 39%
Home Win & Under 2.5 21%
Draw & Over 2.5 5%
Draw & Under 2.5 2%
Away Win & Over 2.5 21%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
—
Kelly %
—
Stake
—
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.09.26ML
Paide0
Levadia2
26.08.26CUP
Levadia4
Paide1
17.05.26ML
Paide1
Levadia3
22.03.26ML
Levadia2
Paide2
22.10.25ML
Levadia1
Paide2
04.07.25ML
Paide0
Levadia3
11.05.25ML
Levadia2
Paide1
23.04.25ML
Paide2
Levadia1
09.11.24ML
Paide3
Levadia0
29.05.24ML
Paide0
Levadia1
Recent Form
Levadia
07.10.26CUP
Levadia10
Keila JK0
W
20.09.26ML
Narva1
Levadia1
D
17.09.26ML
Levadia6
Tammeka0
W
12.09.26ML
Levadia4
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
09.09.26ML
Levadia4
Kuressaare0
W
06.09.26ML
Paide0
Levadia2
W
30.08.26ML
Kalju2
Levadia3
W
26.08.26CUP
Levadia4
Paide1
W
21.08.26ML
Levadia4
Narva0
W
16.08.26ML
Harju JK Laagri1
Levadia2
W
Paide
19.09.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Paide3
W
16.09.26ML
Paide2
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
13.09.26ML
Paide1
Harju JK Laagri2
L
09.09.26ML
Tammeka0
Paide2
W
06.09.26ML
Paide0
Levadia2
L
30.08.26ML
Flora1
Paide2
W
26.08.26CUP
Levadia4
Paide1
L
23.08.26ML
Paide4
Nomme Utd1
W
16.08.26ML
Narva1
Paide1
D
12.08.26UECL
SK Rapid2
Paide0
L
Levadia (Home)
07.10.26CUP
Levadia10
Keila JK0
W
17.09.26ML
Levadia6
Tammeka0
W
12.09.26ML
Levadia4
Parnu JK Vaprus0
W
09.09.26ML
Levadia4
Kuressaare0
W
26.08.26CUP
Levadia4
Paide1
W
21.08.26ML
Levadia4
Narva0
W
09.08.26ML
Levadia5
Nomme Utd0
W
30.07.26UECL
Levadia1
Goteborg3
L
16.07.26UECL
Levadia5
Caernarfon0
W
28.06.26ML
Levadia1
Flora2
L
Paide (Away)
19.09.26ML
Nomme Utd1
Paide3
W
09.09.26ML
Tammeka0
Paide2
W
30.08.26ML
Flora1
Paide2
W
26.08.26CUP
Levadia4
Paide1
L
16.08.26ML
Narva1
Paide1
D
12.08.26UECL
SK Rapid2
Paide0
L
30.07.26UECL
Zira1
Paide1
D
19.07.26ML
Harju JK Laagri5
Paide2
L
09.07.26UECL
Hegelmann1
Paide1
D
28.06.26ML
Kalju1
Paide1
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Estonia Meistriliiga match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 4 wins, 1 draw from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into A. Le Coq Arena (Tallinn). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 3 wins, 2 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward Over 2.5 at @1.43, which our model rates near 89%. The fixture starts at 12:30 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

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Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Levadia vs Paide?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.43. Tip confidence rating: 79%.
What is Levadia's current form?
Levadia have won 9, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches.
How has Paide been performing recently?
Paide have recorded 5 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Levadia lead with 6 wins versus Paide's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
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