WON Tip WON Pakhtakor 2-2 Nasaf Qarshi
P

Pakhtakor

Home
W W W W W
8W 0D 2L → Steady
VS
2-2
N
Nasaf Qarshi
Away
L L D D W
4W 3D 3L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 28th April 2026
1X
Backing Pakhtakor to win or draw
Implied Prob 85.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +4.5% Value detected
Kelly % 31.2% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Pakhtakor
5
Draws
4
Nasaf Qarshi
10
Meetings
1.5
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Neutral Insufficient H2H data.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Pakhtakor
Metric
Nasaf Qarshi
1.9
Goals For / Game
1.2
1
Goals Against / Game
1
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
8-0-2
W — D — L
4-3-3
Win Rate
80%
40%
2.6
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
55%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
P0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 8.6%
0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.7%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 11.3%
1-1 12.5%
1-2 6.9%
1-3 2.5%
1-4 0.7%
1-5 0.2%
P2
2-0 8.2%
2-1 9.0%
2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 0.5%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 4.0%
3-1 4.4%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 1.6%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 0.4%
5-1 0.5%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(12.5%) 1-0(11.3%) 2-1(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Pakhtakor
Overall
8.0
Scoring
6.3
Defence
6.7
Nasaf Qarshi
Overall
4.9
Scoring
4.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 27%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 5%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 17%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 24%
Home Win & Under 2.5 35%
Draw & Over 2.5 4%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 12%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
20.11.25SL
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi0
27.06.25SL
Nasaf Qarshi2
Pakhtakor2
10.08.24SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Pakhtakor0
29.05.24SUC
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi (1 - 1)2
08.03.24SL
Pakhtakor0
Nasaf Qarshi0
03.11.23SL
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi1
24.08.23SUC
Pakhtakor1
Nasaf Qarshi2
15.08.23SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Pakhtakor0
02.10.22SL
Pakhtakor0
Nasaf Qarshi1
07.05.22SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Pakhtakor0
Recent Form
Pakhtakor
22.04.26SL
Buxoro0
Pakhtakor1
W
18.04.26SL
Pakhtakor4
Din. Samarkand2
W
13.04.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Mashal Muborak1
W
09.04.26SL
Neftchi Fargona0
Pakhtakor1
W
04.04.26SL
Pakhtakor3
OKMK1
W
20.03.26SL
Sogdiana2
Pakhtakor4
W
15.03.26SUC
Neftchi Fargona1
Pakhtakor0
L
10.03.26SL
Pakhtakor0
Navbahor Namangan2
L
04.03.26SL
Kokand 19121
Pakhtakor2
W
27.02.26SL
Pakhtakor2
Qizilqum0
W
Nasaf Qarshi
23.04.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi2
Lok. Tashkent3
L
18.04.26SL
Neftchi Fargona2
Nasaf Qarshi1
L
13.04.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Buxoro1
D
08.04.26SL
Kokand 19121
Nasaf Qarshi1
D
03.04.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Andijan0
W
20.03.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi0
Termez Surkhon1
L
12.03.26SL
Din. Samarkand1
Nasaf Qarshi1
D
06.03.26SL
Sogdiana0
Nasaf Qarshi2
W
01.03.26SL
Nasaf Qarshi1
Xorazm Urganch0
W
16.02.26CL
Al Sharjah1
Nasaf Qarshi2
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Uzbekistan Super League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1X, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.17 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Pakhtakor vs Nasaf Qarshi?
Our selection is 1X — Pakhtakor to win or draw, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 90%.
What is Pakhtakor's current form?
Pakhtakor have won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Nasaf Qarshi been performing recently?
Nasaf Qarshi have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Pakhtakor lead with 1 wins versus Nasaf Qarshi's 4, with 5 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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