WON Tip WON PSG 3-1 Toulouse
P

PSG

Home
W W W L W
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
3-1
T
Toulouse
Away
W W L W L
3W 3D 4L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 3rd April 2026
1
Backing PSG to win
PSG 60%
Draw 20%
Toulouse 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -6.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
8
PSG
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
10
Meetings
3.2
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip PSG won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
PSG
Metric
Toulouse
2.8
Goals For / Game
1
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.1
50%
Clean Sheets
30%
7-1-2
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
70%
30%
3.1
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
T0
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
P0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 2.9%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
P1
1-0 9.2%
1-1 10.2%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 2.1%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.1%
P2
2-0 9.0%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
P3
3-0 5.9%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.3%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
P4
4-0 2.9%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.0%
P5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(9.2%) 2-0(9.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip P=Home goals ↓   T=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
PSG Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Toulouse Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
PSG
Overall
7.3
Scoring
9.3
Defence
6.0
Toulouse
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 26%
Home Win & BTTS No 32%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 14%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 35%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 15%
Away Win & Under 2.5 10%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.08.25
Ligue 1: Toulouse3
PSG6
15.02.25
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG1
22.11.24
Ligue 1: PSG3
Toulouse0
12.05.24
Ligue 1: PSG1
Toulouse3
03.01.24
Trophee des Champions: PSG2
Toulouse0
19.08.23
Ligue 1: Toulouse1
PSG1
04.02.23
Ligue 1: PSG2
Toulouse1
31.08.22
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG3
25.08.19
Ligue 1: PSG4
Toulouse0
31.03.19
Ligue 1: Toulouse0
PSG1
Recent Form
PSG
21.03.26
Ligue 1: Nice0
PSG4
W
17.03.26
UCL: Chelsea0
PSG3
W
11.03.26
UCL: PSG5
Chelsea2
W
06.03.26
Ligue 1: PSG1
Monaco3
L
28.02.26
Ligue 1: Le Havre0
PSG1
W
25.02.26
UCL: PSG2
Monaco2
D
21.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG3
Metz0
W
17.02.26
UCL: Monaco2
PSG3
W
13.02.26
Ligue 1: Rennes3
PSG1
L
08.02.26
Ligue 1: PSG5
Marseille0
W
Toulouse
21.03.26
L1: Toulouse1
Lorient0
W
15.03.26
L1: Metz3
Toulouse4
W
07.03.26
L1: Toulouse0
Marseille1
L
04.03.26
CDF: Marseille2
Toulouse (2-3 Pens)2
W
28.02.26
L1: Rennes1
Toulouse0
L
21.02.26
L1: Toulouse1
Paris FC1
D
15.02.26
L1: Le Havre2
Toulouse1
L
08.02.26
L1: Angers1
Toulouse0
L
04.02.26
CDF: Toulouse1
Amiens0
W
01.02.26
L1: Toulouse0
Auxerre0
D
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 3rd April 2026, PSG host Toulouse in Ligue 1. We recommend PSG to win as the standout selection.

PSG arrive in strong form, having recorded 7 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Toulouse are struggling away from home, with a record of 3W 3D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour PSG, who lead the head-to-head with 8 wins to Toulouse's 1, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: psg to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Ligue 1 fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.35 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for PSG vs Toulouse?
Our selection is 1 — PSG to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is PSG's current form?
PSG have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Toulouse been performing recently?
Toulouse have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
PSG lead with 8 wins versus Toulouse's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. 24predictiontoday provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.
18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.