WON Tip WON Real Madrid 2-1 Alaves
R

Real Madrid

Home
L D L L W
4W 1D 5L → Steady
VS
2-1
A
Alaves
Away
D D W D L
1W 5D 4L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 21st April 2026
1
Backing Real Madrid to win
Real Madrid 50%
Draw 30%
Alaves 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 75.8% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -18.8% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
9
Real Madrid
1
Draws
0
Alaves
10
Meetings
3.3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Real Madrid won 9 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Real Madrid
Metric
Alaves
1.9
Goals For / Game
0
1.6
Goals Against / Game
0
10%
Clean Sheets
0%
4-1-5
W — D — L
1-5-4
Win Rate
40%
10%
1.8
Avg Goals
45%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
40%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
R0
0-0 17.4%
0-1 13.9%
0-2 5.6%
0-3 1.5%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 16.5%
1-1 13.2%
1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.4%
1-4 0.3%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 7.8%
2-1 6.3%
2-2 2.5%
2-3 0.7%
2-4 0.1%
2-5 0.0%
R3
3-0 2.5%
3-1 2.0%
3-2 0.8%
3-3 0.2%
3-4 0.0%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 0.5%
4-2 0.2%
4-3 0.1%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(16.5%) 2-0(7.8%) 2-1(6.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Real Madrid Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Alaves Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Real Madrid
Overall
4.3
Scoring
6.3
Defence
4.7
Alaves
Overall
2.5
Scoring
0.0
Defence
10.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 20%
Home Win & BTTS No 30%
Draw & BTTS Yes 15%
Draw & BTTS No 23%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 5%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 20%
Home Win & Under 2.5 30%
Draw & Over 2.5 15%
Draw & Under 2.5 23%
Away Win & Over 2.5 5%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
14.12.25La Liga
Alavés1
Real Madrid2
13.04.25La Liga
Alavés0
Real Madrid1
24.09.24La Liga
Real Madrid3
Alavés2
14.05.24La Liga
Real Madrid5
Alavés0
21.12.23La Liga
Alavés0
Real Madrid1
19.02.22La Liga
Real Madrid3
Alavés0
14.08.21La Liga
Alavés1
Real Madrid4
23.01.21La Liga
Alavés1
Real Madrid4
28.11.20La Liga
Real Madrid1
Alavés2
10.07.20La Liga
Real Madrid2
Alavés0
Recent Form
Real Madrid
15.04.26Champions League
Bayern Munich4
Real Madrid3
L
10.04.26La Liga
Real Madrid1
Girona1
D
07.04.26Champions League
Real Madrid1
Bayern Munich2
L
04.04.26La Liga
Mallorca2
Real Madrid1
L
22.03.26La Liga
Real Madrid3
Atletico Madrid2
W
17.03.26Champions League
Manchester City1
Real Madrid2
W
14.03.26La Liga
Real Madrid4
Elche1
W
11.03.26Champions League
Real Madrid3
Manchester City0
W
06.03.26La Liga
Celta Vigo1
Real Madrid2
W
02.03.26La Liga
Real Madrid0
Getafe1
L
Alaves
11.04.26La Liga
Real Sociedad3
Alavés3
D
05.04.26La Liga
Alavés2
Osasuna2
D
22.03.26La Liga
Celta Vigo3
Alavés4
W
13.03.26La Liga
Alavés1
Villarreal1
D
08.03.26La Liga
Valencia3
Alavés2
L
27.02.26La Liga
Levante2
Alavés0
L
23.02.26La Liga
Alavés2
Girona2
D
14.02.26La Liga
Sevilla1
Alavés1
D
08.02.26La Liga
Alavés0
Getafe2
L
04.02.26Copa del Rey
Alavés2
Real Sociedad3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming La Liga fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.32 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Real Madrid vs Alaves?
Our selection is 1 — Real Madrid to win, priced at approximately 1.32. Tip confidence rating: 57%.
What is Real Madrid's current form?
Real Madrid have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Alaves been performing recently?
Alaves have recorded 1 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Real Madrid lead with 9 wins versus Alaves's 0, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 1.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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