WON Tip WON RFS 5-0 FK Liepaja
R

RFS

Home
W D W W W
8W 1D 1L ▲ Improving
VS
5-0
F
FK Liepaja
Away
L D W D D
3W 3D 4L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 8th May 2026
1
Backing RFS to win
RFS 50%
Draw 30%
FK Liepaja 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -12.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
8
RFS
1
Draws
1
FK Liepaja
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
80%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip RFS won 8 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
RFS
Metric
FK Liepaja
2
Goals For / Game
1
0.9
Goals Against / Game
1.2
50%
Clean Sheets
10%
8-1-1
W — D — L
3-3-4
Win Rate
80%
30%
2.6
Avg Goals
65%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
R0
0-0 7.8%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
R1
1-0 12.5%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 5.6%
1-3 1.8%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 10.0%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 4.5%
2-3 1.4%
2-4 0.3%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 5.3%
3-1 5.1%
3-2 2.4%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 2.1%
4-1 2.0%
4-2 1.0%
4-3 0.3%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(12.5%) 2-0(10.0%) 2-1(9.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
RFS Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
FK Liepaja Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
RFS
Overall
8.3
Scoring
6.7
Defence
7.0
FK Liepaja
Overall
3.9
Scoring
3.3
Defence
6.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 31%
Home Win & BTTS No 31%
Draw & BTTS Yes 8%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 25%
Home Win & Under 2.5 37%
Draw & Over 2.5 6%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 14%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
28.09.25VIR
FK Liepaja2
RFS2
04.07.25VIR
RFS2
FK Liepaja1
14.05.25VIR
FK Liepaja2
RFS1
29.03.25VIR
RFS4
FK Liepaja1
20.09.24VIR
RFS2
FK Liepaja0
01.07.24VIR
FK Liepaja1
RFS3
10.05.24VIR
RFS4
FK Liepaja1
30.03.24VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS3
30.09.23VIR
RFS3
FK Liepaja1
Recent Form
RFS
02.05.26VIR
Ogre United3
RFS4
W
28.04.26VIR
RFS3
Riga FC3
D
22.04.26VIR
Grobina0
RFS1
W
18.04.26VIR
RFS2
Super Nova0
W
13.04.26VIR
Tukums 20001
RFS2
W
08.04.26VIR
Jelgava0
RFS1
W
04.04.26VIR
RFS0
Auda1
L
21.03.26VIR
RFS4
BFC Daugavpils1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
W
06.03.26VIR
RFS2
Ogre United0
W
FK Liepaja
03.05.26VIR
Riga FC1
FK Liepaja0
L
28.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Grobina1
D
23.04.26VIR
Super Nova1
FK Liepaja2
W
17.04.26VIR
Tukums 20002
FK Liepaja2
D
12.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Jelgava1
D
08.04.26VIR
FK Liepaja1
Auda2
L
03.04.26VIR
BFC Daugavpils2
FK Liepaja0
L
20.03.26VIR
Ogre United0
FK Liepaja1
W
13.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja0
RFS1
L
07.03.26VIR
FK Liepaja2
Riga FC1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Latvia Virsliga fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.26 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for RFS vs FK Liepaja?
Our selection is 1 — RFS to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 67%.
What is RFS's current form?
RFS have won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has FK Liepaja been performing recently?
FK Liepaja have recorded 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
RFS lead with 8 wins versus FK Liepaja's 1, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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