WON Tip WON Super Nova 1-4 Riga
S

Super Nova

Home
W W W D L
4W 2D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
1-4
R
Riga
Away
D W L W W
6W 1D 3L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 14th April 2026
2
Backing Riga to win
Super Nova 30%
Draw 20%
Riga 50%
H Fair Odds 3.33
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 86.2% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -23.2% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Riga to win
1.16
Over 2.5 Goals79% Over 1.5 Goals89% BTTS — Yes79%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Super Nova vs Riga Competition: Latvia Virsliga Date: Tuesday, 14th April 2026 Pick: 2 (Riga to win) Odds: 1.16 Confidence: 63% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (79%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (89%) Also: BTTS — Yes (79%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Super Nova
1
Draws
9
Riga
10
Meetings
4.2
Avg Goals
60%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Riga won 9 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Super Nova
Metric
Riga
1.4
Goals For / Game
3
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.5
11%
Clean Sheets
20%
4-2-3
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
44%
60%
3.7
Avg Goals
89%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
79%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
R0
R1
R2
R3
R4
R5
S0
0-0 2.6%
0-1 5.7%
0-2 6.3%
0-3 4.6%
0-4 2.5%
0-5 1.1%
S1
1-0 3.8%
1-1 8.3%
1-2 9.1%
1-3 6.7%
1-4 3.7%
1-5 1.6%
S2
2-0 2.7%
2-1 6.0%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 4.9%
2-4 2.7%
2-5 1.2%
S3
3-0 1.3%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 3.2%
3-3 2.3%
3-4 1.3%
3-5 0.6%
S4
4-0 0.5%
4-1 1.1%
4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.9%
4-4 0.5%
4-5 0.2%
S5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.1%
Top Scores 1-2(9.1%) 1-3(6.7%) 0-2(6.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip S=Home goals ↓   R=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Super Nova Win
30%
3.33
Draw
20%
5
Riga Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Super Nova
Overall
5.1
Scoring
4.8
Defence
5.2
Riga
Overall
6.3
Scoring
10.0
Defence
5.0
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 29%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 3%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 40%
Away Win & BTTS No 11%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 29%
Home Win & Under 2.5 8%
Draw & Over 2.5 10%
Draw & Under 2.5 3%
Away Win & Over 2.5 40%
Away Win & Under 2.5 11%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.08.25
Virslīga: Super Nova2
Riga FC6
22.06.25
Virslīga: Riga FC2
Super Nova0
01.05.25
Virslīga: Super Nova1
Riga FC5
06.03.25
Virslīga: Riga FC2
Super Nova0
29.10.23
Virslīga: Riga FC1
Super Nova1
06.08.23
Virslīga: Super Nova1
Riga FC5
31.05.23
Virslīga: Riga FC5
Super Nova1
20.04.23
Virslīga: Super Nova0
Riga FC4
30.09.22
Virslīga: Super Nova1
Riga FC4
17.07.22
Virslīga: Riga FC1
Super Nova0
Recent Form
Super Nova
09.04.26
Virslīga: FK Grobiņa0
Super Nova1
W
03.04.26
Virslīga: Ogre United1
Super Nova2
W
22.03.26
Virslīga: Tukums 20001
Super Nova2
W
15.03.26
Virslīga: Super Nova1
FS Jelgava1
D
08.03.26
Virslīga: FK Auda2
Super Nova1
L
28.02.26
Friendlies: Paide1
Super Nova0
L
21.02.26
Friendlies: Kalju1
Super Nova1
D
11.02.26
Friendlies: Narva1
Super Nova3
W
14.01.26
Friendlies: RFS5
Super Nova2
L
Riga
09.04.26
Virslīga: Riga FC3
Tukums 20003
D
04.04.26
Virslīga: FS Jelgava0
Riga FC8
W
27.03.26
Friendlies: Legia Warsaw3
Riga FC1
L
20.03.26
Virslīga: FK Auda1
Riga FC2
W
14.03.26
Virslīga: Riga FC4
BFC Daugavpils2
W
07.03.26
Virslīga: FK Liepāja2
Riga FC1
L
24.02.26
Friendlies: Flora Tallinn0
Riga FC3
W
17.02.26
Winter Cup: Riga FC4
FK Auda1
W
12.02.26
Friendlies: LNZ Cherkasy1
Riga FC3
W
05.02.26
Friendlies: Shakhtar Donetsk2
Riga FC1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Latvia Virsliga fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 2, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.16 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Super Nova vs Riga?
Our selection is 2 — Riga to win, priced at approximately 1.16. Tip confidence rating: 63%.
What is Super Nova's current form?
Super Nova have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9 matches.
How has Riga been performing recently?
Riga have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Super Nova lead with 0 wins versus Riga's 9, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.7 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 60%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. 24predictiontoday provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.

18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.