Moderate Signal 49% Confidence
W

West Ham

Home
W D W L D
4W 5D 1L → Steady
VS
3:00 pm
London Stadium (London)
D
Derby County
Away
W L D L L
2W 2D 6L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 5th September 2026
1
Backing West Ham to win
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -30.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — West Ham to win
1.26
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals90% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
West Ham vs Derby County Date: Saturday, 5th September 2026 KO: 3:00 pm Pick: 1 (West Ham to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 49% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (90%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%)
Head to Head
Record
6
West Ham
2
Draws
2
Derby County
10
Meetings
2.7
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip West Ham won 6 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
West Ham
Metric
Derby County
2.2
Goals For / Game
1.2
1.1
Goals Against / Game
1.7
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
4-5-1
W — D — L
2-2-6
Win Rate
40%
20%
3.1
Avg Goals
90%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
D0
D1
D2
D3
D4
D5
W0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 5.2%
0-2 3.0%
0-3 1.1%
0-4 0.3%
0-5 0.1%
W1
1-0 8.8%
1-1 10.1%
1-2 5.8%
1-3 2.2%
1-4 0.6%
1-5 0.2%
W2
2-0 8.6%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 5.7%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.1%
W3
3-0 5.6%
3-1 6.4%
3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
W4
4-0 2.7%
4-1 3.1%
4-2 1.8%
4-3 0.7%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
W5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.2%
5-2 0.7%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.9%) 1-0(8.8%) 2-0(8.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip W=Home goals ↓   D=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
West Ham
Overall
5.5
Scoring
7.3
Defence
6.3
Derby County
Overall
2.6
Scoring
4.0
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 32%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 28%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%
Away Win & BTTS No 5%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 27%
Home Win & Under 2.5 15%
Draw & Over 2.5 24%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
30.01.23FAC
Derby0
West Ham2
31.12.11CHA
Derby2
West Ham1
26.11.11CHA
West Ham3
Derby1
19.04.08PL
West Ham2
Derby1
10.11.07PL
Derby0
West Ham5
23.01.05CHA
West Ham1
Derby2
29.09.04CHA
Derby1
West Ham1
10.04.04CHA
West Ham0
Derby0
04.10.03CHA
Derby0
West Ham1
26.12.01PL
West Ham4
Derby0
Recent Form
West Ham
01.09.26CHA
West Ham4
Wolves2
W
29.08.26CHA
Watford1
West Ham1
D
25.08.26EFL
Southampton1
West Ham4
W
22.08.26CHA
West Ham1
Charlton2
L
16.08.26CHA
Burnley2
West Ham2
D
08.08.26EFL
West Ham3
Portsmouth1
W
01.08.26CF
Magdeburg1
West Ham1
D
26.07.26CF
Rangers0
West Ham0
D
22.07.26CF
Stevenage0
West Ham5
W
18.07.26CF
Southend1
West Ham1
D
Derby County
01.09.26CHA
Portsmouth0
Derby2
W
29.08.26CHA
Derby0
Swansea3
L
22.08.26CHA
Derby2
Cardiff2
D
15.08.26CHA
Charlton2
Derby1
L
08.08.26EFL
Derby1
Lincoln2
L
04.08.26CF
Rotherham1
Derby1
D
01.08.26CF
Burton1
Derby0
L
31.07.26CF
Mansfield1
Derby3
W
28.07.26CF
Derby1
Valencia2
L
24.07.26CF
Freiburg3
Derby1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Unknown League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into London Stadium (London). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.26, which our model rates near 49%. The fixture starts at 3:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for West Ham vs Derby County?
Our selection is 1 — West Ham to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 49%.
What is West Ham's current form?
West Ham have won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches.
How has Derby County been performing recently?
Derby County have recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
West Ham lead with 6 wins versus Derby County's 2, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
⚠️
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