Strong Signal 66% Confidence
R

Referencia U20

Home
W L L L W
2W 1D 7L ▼ Declining
VS
7:00 pm
N/A
P
Palmeiras U20
Away
W W W W W
6W 3D 1L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 21st August 2026
2
Backing Palmeiras U20 to win
Referencia U20 20%
Draw 30%
Palmeiras U20 50%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 85.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -19.5% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Palmeiras U20 to win
1.17
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Referencia U20 vs Palmeiras U20 Competition: Brazil Paulista U20 Date: Friday, 21st August 2026 KO: 7:00 pm Pick: 2 (Palmeiras U20 to win) Odds: 1.17 Confidence: 66% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
0
Referencia U20
0
Draws
4
Palmeiras U20
4
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
25%
BTTS
75%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Palmeiras U20 won 4 of 4 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Referencia U20
Metric
Palmeiras U20
0.7
Goals For / Game
2.1
1.7
Goals Against / Game
1
20%
Clean Sheets
50%
2-1-7
W — D — L
6-3-1
Win Rate
20%
60%
2.8
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
45%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
R0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 12.2%
0-2 11.5%
0-3 7.3%
0-4 3.5%
0-5 1.3%
R1
1-0 5.4%
1-1 10.3%
1-2 9.8%
1-3 6.2%
1-4 3.0%
1-5 1.1%
R2
2-0 2.3%
2-1 4.4%
2-2 4.2%
2-3 2.6%
2-4 1.3%
2-5 0.5%
R3
3-0 0.7%
3-1 1.2%
3-2 1.2%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.4%
3-5 0.1%
R4
4-0 0.1%
4-1 0.3%
4-2 0.3%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-1(12.2%) 0-2(11.5%) 1-2(9.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Referencia U20 Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Palmeiras U20 Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Referencia U20
Overall
2.3
Scoring
2.3
Defence
4.3
Palmeiras U20
Overall
6.9
Scoring
7.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 9%
Home Win & BTTS No 11%
Draw & BTTS Yes 9%
Draw & BTTS No 11%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 33%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
26.09.25PAU
Palmeiras U203
Referencia U200
19.09.25PAU
Referencia U200
Palmeiras U202
03.05.25PAU
Palmeiras U204
Referencia U200
13.01.25CPH
Palmeiras U202
Referencia U201
Recent Form
Referencia U20
14.08.26PAU
Referencia U201
Sfera U200
W
11.08.26PAU
XV de Jau U202
Referencia U201
L
07.08.26PAU
Osasco Audax U203
Referencia U200
L
31.07.26PAU
Referencia U200
Guarani U201
L
26.07.26PAU
Porto Football U200
Referencia U201
W
17.07.26PAU
Capivariano U202
Referencia U200
L
05.07.26PAU
Referencia U201
RB Bragantino U204
L
26.06.26PAU
Referencia U201
Gremio Prudente U202
L
12.06.26PAU
Ituano U201
Referencia U201
D
05.06.26PAU
Referencia U201
Agua Santa U202
L
Palmeiras U20
14.08.26PAU
Palmeiras U203
XV de Jau U200
W
11.08.26PAU
Palmeiras U204
Ituano U200
W
07.08.26PAU
Tanabi U200
Palmeiras U201
W
02.08.26PAU
Maua U200
Palmeiras U202
W
30.07.26BRA
Palmeiras U202
RB Bragantino U200
W
26.07.26PAU
Palmeiras U200
RB Bragantino U203
L
23.07.26BRA
RB Bragantino U203
Palmeiras U203
D
19.07.26PAU
Flamengo SP U201
Palmeiras U201
D
16.07.26BRA
Palmeiras U203
Corinthians U201
W
11.07.26PAU
Palmeiras U202
Capivariano U202
D
Referencia U20 (Home)
14.08.26PAU
Referencia U201
Sfera U200
W
31.07.26PAU
Referencia U200
Guarani U201
L
05.07.26PAU
Referencia U201
RB Bragantino U204
L
26.06.26PAU
Referencia U201
Gremio Prudente U202
L
05.06.26PAU
Referencia U201
Agua Santa U202
L
10.01.26CPH
Referencia U203
Real SC U201
W
07.01.26CPH
Referencia U201
Ituano U202
L
04.01.26CPH
Referencia U201
Ivinhema U201
D
19.09.25PAU
Referencia U200
Palmeiras U202
L
05.09.25PAU
Referencia U200
Portuguesa U200
D
Palmeiras U20 (Away)
07.08.26PAU
Tanabi U200
Palmeiras U201
W
02.08.26PAU
Maua U200
Palmeiras U202
W
23.07.26BRA
RB Bragantino U203
Palmeiras U203
D
19.07.26PAU
Flamengo SP U201
Palmeiras U201
D
08.07.26BRA
Corinthians U200
Palmeiras U201
W
05.07.26PAU
Porto Football U200
Palmeiras U201
W
25.06.26BRA
Fluminense U200
Palmeiras U203
W
16.06.26BRA
Criciuma U200
Palmeiras U206
W
04.06.26PAU
Gremio Prudente U200
Palmeiras U202
W
27.05.26BRA
Fortaleza U201
Palmeiras U202
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Brazil Paulista U20 match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 2 wins, 3 losses from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into N/A. The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 5 wins from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 2 at @1.17, which our model rates near 20,30,50%. The fixture starts at 7:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Referencia U20 vs Palmeiras U20?
Our selection is 2 — Palmeiras U20 to win, priced at approximately 1.17. Tip confidence rating: 66%.
What is Referencia U20's current form?
Referencia U20 have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches.
How has Palmeiras U20 been performing recently?
Palmeiras U20 have recorded 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Referencia U20 lead with 0 wins versus Palmeiras U20's 4, with 0 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 25%.
⚠️
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