Moderate Signal 54% Confidence
A

Al Ahli SC

Home
W W D L L
5W 2D 3L ▲ Improving
VS
7:00 pm
King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah)
A
Abha
Away
L L D L L
3W 2D 5L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 22nd August 2026
1
Backing Al Ahli SC to win
Al Ahli SC 60%
Draw 20%
Abha 20%
H Fair Odds 1.67
D Fair Odds 5
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 83.3% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -29.3% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
5
Al Ahli SC
2
Draws
3
Abha
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Neutral Al Ahli SC won 5 of the last 10 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Al Ahli SC
Metric
Abha
1.7
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.5
Goals Against / Game
1.4
20%
Clean Sheets
30%
5-2-3
W — D — L
3-2-5
Win Rate
50%
30%
2.8
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
A0
A1
A2
A3
A4
A5
A0
0-0 6.4%
0-1 7.7%
0-2 4.6%
0-3 1.8%
0-4 0.6%
0-5 0.1%
A1
1-0 9.9%
1-1 11.9%
1-2 7.1%
1-3 2.9%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
A2
2-0 7.7%
2-1 9.2%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 2.2%
2-4 0.7%
2-5 0.2%
A3
3-0 4.0%
3-1 4.8%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 1.1%
3-4 0.3%
3-5 0.1%
A4
4-0 1.5%
4-1 1.8%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
A5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.6%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(9.9%) 2-1(9.2%) 2-0(7.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip A=Home goals ↓   A=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Al Ahli SC Win
60%
1.67
Draw
20%
5
Abha Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Al Ahli SC
Overall
5.6
Scoring
5.7
Defence
5.0
Abha
Overall
3.6
Scoring
3.0
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Home Win & BTTS No 20%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 18%
Away Win & BTTS No 12%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 30%
Home Win & Under 2.5 20%
Draw & Over 2.5 12%
Draw & Under 2.5 8%
Away Win & Over 2.5 18%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.05.24SPL
Al Ahli SC5
Abha1
30.11.23SPL
Abha0
Al Ahli SC6
31.10.23KC
Al Ahli SC1
Abha2
22.05.22SPL
Al Ahli SC1
Abha1
21.11.21SPL
Abha2
Al Ahli SC0
25.05.21SPL
Abha1
Al Ahli SC1
19.01.21SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Abha0
04.09.20SPL
Abha2
Al Ahli SC1
13.01.20SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Abha1
19.12.08SPL
Al Ahli SC2
Abha1
Recent Form
Al Ahli SC
17.08.26KC
Al Anwar1
Al Ahli SC2
W
13.08.26SPL
Al Diriyah0
Al Ahli SC1
W
28.07.26CF
Al Ahli SC1
Fulham1
D
28.07.26CF
Portimonense2
Al Ahli SC0
L
24.07.26CF
Al Ahli SC1
Vitoria Guimaraes3
L
19.07.26CF
Rio Ave2
Al Ahli SC2
D
15.07.26CF
Holstein Kiel4
Al Ahli SC1
L
20.05.26SPL
Al Khaleej1
Al Ahli SC4
W
16.05.26SPL
Al Ahli SC3
Al Kholood0
W
11.05.26SPL
Al Taawon1
Al Ahli SC2
W
Abha
16.08.26KC
Al Orubah0
Abha (3-2)0
13.08.26SPL
Abha1
Al Hazem2
L
31.07.26CF
Rizespor0
Abha0
D
19.07.26CF
Al Sharjah2
Abha1
L
13.05.26DIV
Al Raed5
Abha1
L
09.05.26DIV
Abha0
Al Adalah1
L
01.05.26DIV
Al Diriyah2
Abha0
L
26.04.26DIV
Abha3
Al Batin1
W
21.04.26DIV
Al Taee1
Abha2
W
15.04.26DIV
Abha1
Jeddah0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Some people think betting well means knowing football inside out. It helps, but it is not the heart of it. The heart of it is process — applying the same method, without shortcuts, to every fixture you take seriously. Here is the method, walked through for this Saudi Professional League match.

First, the current state of both teams — not their reputation, not their league position, but their form right now. The home side comes in on 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses from their last 5 games, and those recent games tell us the attacking shape, the defensive resilience, and the momentum, or lack of it, they will carry into King Abdullah Sports City (Jeddah). The table can flatter or mislead; the recent run rarely does.

Second, the same scrutiny for the visitors, who arrive on 1 draw, 4 losses from their last 5 games. We focus on how they have handled the road lately, because travelling to a hostile ground and coming away with something demands a different kind of discipline than playing at home. The recent away record is the clearest read on whether they have that discipline at the moment.

Third, the conclusion. With both sides measured the same way, everything points toward 1 at @1.20, which our model rates near 60,20,20%. The fixture starts at 7:00 pm.

That is where the method lands us — no guesswork, no favouritism, just the same steps applied honestly. We have run today’s full card through the identical process, so take a look at the other selections before you close out. Consistency in approach is what separates a good week from a lucky one.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Al Ahli SC vs Abha?
Our selection is 1 — Al Ahli SC to win, priced at approximately 1.20. Tip confidence rating: 54%.
What is Al Ahli SC's current form?
Al Ahli SC have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Abha been performing recently?
Abha have recorded 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Al Ahli SC lead with 5 wins versus Abha's 3, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
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