LOST Tip LOST Bayern Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal

Bayern Leverkusen

Q: What is the recommended bet for Bayern Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 48%.

Home

D W D D L

1W 3D 1L ▼ Declining

1-1

Arsenal

Away

W W W W D

1W 1D 2L ▼ Declining

Bayern Leverkusen 30%

Draw 20%

Arsenal 50%

H Fair Odds 3.33

D Fair Odds 5

A Fair Odds 2

Implied Prob 81.3% Bookie's implied odds

Our Edge -33.3% Overpriced

Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %

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Head to Head

Record

Bayern Leverkusen

Draws

Arsenal

Meetings

Avg Goals

100%

BTTS

67%

Over 2.5

Supports Tip Over 1.5 in 100% of H2H.

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Stats Duel

Comparison

Bayern Leverkusen

Metric

Arsenal

Goals For / Game

1.3

Goals Against / Game

40%

Clean Sheets

1-3-1

W — D — L

1-1-2

Win Rate

20%

25%

2.6

Avg Goals

56%

Over 1.5

44%

Over 2.5

58%

BTTS Rate

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Score Probability Matrix

Poisson Model

0-0 7.1%

0-1 8.1%

0-2 4.7%

0-3 1.8%

0-4 0.5%

0-5 0.1%

1-0 10.6%

1-1 12.2%

1-2 7.0%

1-3 2.7%

1-4 0.8%

1-5 0.2%

2-0 8.0%

2-1 9.1%

2-2 5.3%

2-3 2.0%

2-4 0.6%

2-5 0.1%

3-0 4.0%

3-1 4.6%

3-2 2.6%

3-3 1.0%

3-4 0.3%

3-5 0.1%

4-0 1.5%

4-1 1.7%

4-2 1.0%

4-3 0.4%

4-4 0.1%

4-5 0.0%

5-0 0.5%

5-1 0.5%

5-2 0.3%

5-3 0.1%

5-4 0.0%

5-5 0.0%

Top Scores 1-1(12.2%) 1-0(10.6%) 2-1(9.1%)

■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓ A=Away →

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Market Odds Intelligence

Value Finder

Bayern Leverkusen Win

30%

3.33

Draw

20%

Arsenal Win

50%

Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.

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Team Ratings

Grades

Bayern Leverkusen

Overall

3.8 —

Scoring

3.3 —

Defence

6.7 —

Arsenal

Overall

3.3 —

Scoring

4.2 —

Defence

3.3 —

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Combination Markets

Smart Picks

Result & BTTS

Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%

Home Win & BTTS No 10%

Draw & BTTS Yes 27%

Draw & BTTS No 22%

Away Win & BTTS Yes 16%

Away Win & BTTS No 13%

Result & Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5 10%

Home Win & Under 2.5 12%

Draw & Over 2.5 22%

Draw & Under 2.5 27%

Away Win & Over 2.5 13%

Away Win & Under 2.5 16%

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Stake Calculator

Bankroll Tool

Bankroll

Decimal Odds

Win Probability %

Kelly Fraction

—

Kelly %

—

Stake

—

Potential Profit

Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.

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Match Archives

History

Head to Head

⚽ CF (07.08.24): Arsenal4

Bayer Leverkusen1

⚽ CL (27.02.02): Arsenal4

Bayer Leverkusen1

⚽ CL (19.02.02): Bayer Leverkusen1

Arsenal1

Recent Form

Bayern Leverkusen

⚽ BUN (07.03.26): Freiburg3

Bayer Leverkusen3

⚽ BUN (04.03.26): Hamburger SV0

Bayer Leverkusen1

⚽ BUN (28.02.26): Bayer Leverkusen1

Mainz1

⚽ CL (24.02.26): Bayer Leverkusen0

Olympiacos Piraeus0

⚽ BUN (21.02.26): Union Berlin1

Bayer Leverkusen0

Arsenal

⚽ FA Cup: A Test Passed (07.03.26): Arsenal’s resilience shone through with a crucial2

victory at Mansfield, setting the tone for their cup ambitions and depth.1

⚽ Premier League: Away Day Grind (04.03.26): A professional1

win at Brighton underscored Arsenal’s title credentials, demonstrating their ability to secure vital points on the road.0

⚽ Premier League: Derby Dominance (01.03.26): The Gunners showed grit at home, overcoming Chelsea2

in a fierce derby, a testament to their winning mentality in high-stakes clashes.1

⚽ Premier League: North London Statement (22.02.26): A stunning4

thrashing of Tottenham away sent a clear message: Arsenal are firing on all cylinders and ready to conquer.1

⚽ Premier League: Resilience Tested (18.02.26): A hard-fought2

draw at Wolves, salvaging a point despite adversity, highlighted Arsenal’s never-say-die attitude crucial for the title run-in.2

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Match Analysis

Writeup

On Wednesday, 11th March 2026, Bayern Leverkusen host Arsenal in UEFA Champions League. We recommend over 1.5 goals as the standout selection.

Bayern Leverkusen arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 1 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats from their last 5 outings.

Arsenal are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 1D 2L across 4 matches.

Historical meetings favour Bayern Leverkusen, who lead the head-to-head with 0 wins to Arsenal's 2, with 1 draws from 3 encounters. Both teams have scored in 100% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.23 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.

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Quick Answers

FAQ

What is the recommended bet for Bayern Leverkusen vs Arsenal?

Our selection is Over 1.5 — over 1.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.23. Tip confidence rating: 48%.

What is Bayern Leverkusen's current form?

Bayern Leverkusen have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches.

How has Arsenal been performing recently?

Arsenal have recorded 1 wins, 1 draws and 2 defeats from 4 recent games.

What does the head-to-head record show?

Bayern Leverkusen lead with 0 wins versus Arsenal's 2, with 1 draws across 3 meetings.

How many goals are expected in this match?

Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.6 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 100%.

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