LOST Tip LOST Botafogo RJ 1-1 Caracas
B

Botafogo RJ

Home
W W L W L
4W 2D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
1-1
C
Caracas
Away
W D W D L
2W 5D 3L → Steady
24predictiontoday Selection · Thursday, 9th April 2026
1
Backing Botafogo RJ to win
Botafogo RJ 50%
Draw 30%
Caracas 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 80% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -34% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
Neutral No head-to-head data found.
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Stats Duel
Comparison
Botafogo RJ
Metric
Caracas
1.3
Goals For / Game
0.9
1.6
Goals Against / Game
1
10%
Clean Sheets
30%
4-2-4
W — D — L
2-5-3
Win Rate
40%
20%
2.4
Avg Goals
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
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Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
B0
0-0 9.1%
0-1 11.3%
0-2 7.1%
0-3 3.0%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.2%
B1
1-0 10.4%
1-1 13.0%
1-2 8.2%
1-3 3.4%
1-4 1.1%
1-5 0.3%
B2
2-0 6.0%
2-1 7.5%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 2.0%
2-4 0.6%
2-5 0.2%
B3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 2.9%
3-2 1.8%
3-3 0.8%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 0.7%
4-1 0.8%
4-2 0.5%
4-3 0.2%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
B5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.2%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(10.4%) 2-1(7.5%) 2-0(6.0%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
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Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Botafogo RJ Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Caracas Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Botafogo RJ
Overall
4.6
Scoring
4.3
Defence
4.7
Caracas
Overall
3.5
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 17%
Draw & BTTS Yes 22%
Draw & BTTS No 15%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 8%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 19%
Home Win & Under 2.5 23%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 20%
Away Win & Over 2.5 9%
Away Win & Under 2.5 12%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
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Match Archives
History
Head to Head

No data found.

Recent Form
Botafogo RJ
05.04.26
Brasileirão Série A: Vasco da Gama1
Botafogo2
W
01.04.26
Brasileirão Série A: Botafogo3
Mirassol2
W
29.03.26
Brasileirão Série A: Athletico-PR4
Botafogo1
L
21.03.26
Brasileirão Série A: Red Bull Bragantino1
Botafogo2
W
18.03.26
Brasileirão Série A: Palmeiras2
Botafogo1
L
15.03.26
Brasileirão Série A: Botafogo0
Flamengo3
L
11.03.26
Copa Libertadores (Qual.): Botafogo0
Barcelona SC1
L
07.03.26
Campeonato Carioca (Final): Botafogo3
Bangu1
W
04.03.26
Copa Libertadores (Qual.): Barcelona SC1
Botafogo1
D
28.02.26
Campeonato Carioca (SF): Botafogo0
Boavista0
D
Caracas
04.04.26
Liga FUTVE: Caracas FC1
Metropolitanos0
W
23.03.26
Liga FUTVE: Monagas SC1
Caracas FC1
D
18.03.26
Liga FUTVE: Caracas FC4
Trujillanos2
W
14.03.26
Liga FUTVE: Portuguesa FC1
Caracas FC1
D
07.03.26
Liga FUTVE: Caracas FC0
Deportivo Táchira1
L
04.03.26
Sudamericana: Caracas FC0
Metropolitanos (Won 5-4 on Pens)0
W
28.02.26
Liga FUTVE: Carabobo FC0
Caracas FC0
D
22.02.26
Liga FUTVE: Caracas FC1
Universidad Central2
L
14.02.26
Liga FUTVE: Deportivo La Guaira2
Caracas FC0
L
07.02.26
Liga FUTVE: Caracas FC1
Puerto Cabello1
D
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Match Analysis
Writeup

On Thursday, 9th April 2026, Botafogo RJ host Caracas in Copa Sudamericana. We recommend Botafogo RJ to win as the standout selection.

Botafogo RJ arrive showing mixed form, having recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Caracas are struggling away from home, with a record of 2W 5D 3L across 10 matches.

Our verdict: botafogo rj to win at odds of 1.25 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Copa Sudamericana fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.25 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Botafogo RJ vs Caracas?
Our selection is 1 — Botafogo RJ to win, priced at approximately 1.25. Tip confidence rating: 46%.
What is Botafogo RJ's current form?
Botafogo RJ have won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Caracas been performing recently?
Caracas have recorded 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
No recent head-to-head data available.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.4 goals per game.
⚠️
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