WON Tip WON Botafogo 1-0 Chapecoense
B

Botafogo

Home
W W D D W
5W 2D 3L ▼ Declining
VS
1-0
C
Chapecoense
Away
L D L W D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 21st April 2026
1
Backing Botafogo to win
Botafogo 50%
Draw 30%
Chapecoense 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 69% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -16% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Botafogo to win
1.45
Over 2.5 Goals65% Over 1.5 Goals85%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Botafogo vs Chapecoense Competition: Copa Do Brasil Date: Tuesday, 21st April 2026 Pick: 1 (Botafogo to win) Odds: 1.45 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: Over 1.5 Goals (85%)
Head to Head
Record
6
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Chapecoense
10
Meetings
2
Avg Goals
30%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Botafogo won 6 of the last 10 meetings (1 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Botafogo
Metric
Chapecoense
1.9
Goals For / Game
0.6
1.9
Goals Against / Game
1.6
0%
Clean Sheets
20%
5-2-3
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
50%
20%
3
Avg Goals
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
65%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
C0
C1
C2
C3
C4
C5
B0
0-0 5.0%
0-1 6.2%
0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.6%
0-4 0.5%
0-5 0.1%
B1
1-0 8.7%
1-1 10.9%
1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.8%
1-4 0.9%
1-5 0.2%
B2
2-0 7.6%
2-1 9.5%
2-2 6.0%
2-3 2.5%
2-4 0.8%
2-5 0.2%
B3
3-0 4.5%
3-1 5.6%
3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.5%
3-4 0.5%
3-5 0.1%
B4
4-0 2.0%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 1.5%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
B5
5-0 0.7%
5-1 0.9%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(9.5%) 1-0(8.7%) 2-0(7.6%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip B=Home goals ↓   C=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Botafogo Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Chapecoense Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Botafogo
Overall
5.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
3.7
Chapecoense
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 34%
Home Win & BTTS No 19%
Draw & BTTS Yes 17%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 14%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 34%
Home Win & Under 2.5 19%
Draw & Over 2.5 17%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 14%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
18.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Botafogo RJ4
27.11.19
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Botafogo RJ1
27.08.19
 (SA) Botafogo RJ0
Chapecoense-SC0
15.11.18
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Botafogo RJ1
26.07.18
 (SA) Botafogo RJ1
Chapecoense-SC0
11.10.17
 (SA) Botafogo RJ2
Chapecoense-SC1
18.06.17
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Botafogo RJ2
16.11.16
 (SA) Botafogo RJ0
Chapecoense-SC2
24.07.16
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC2
Botafogo RJ1
23.11.14
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC2
Botafogo RJ0
Recent Form
Botafogo
18.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Botafogo RJ - W4
15.04.26
 (COP) Racing Club2
Botafogo RJ - W3
12.04.26
 (SA) Botafogo RJ2
Coritiba - D2
09.04.26
 (COP) Botafogo RJ1
Caracas - D1
05.04.26
 (SA) Vasco1
Botafogo RJ - W2
01.04.26
 (SA) Botafogo RJ3
Mirassol - W2
29.03.26
 (SA) Athletico-PR4
Botafogo RJ - L1
21.03.26
 (SA) Bragantino1
Botafogo RJ - W2
18.03.26
 (SA) Palmeiras2
Botafogo RJ - L1
15.03.26
 (SA) Botafogo RJ0
Flamengo RJ - L3
Chapecoense
18.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Botafogo RJ - L4
16.04.26
 (CSS) Juventude0
Chapecoense-SC - D0
12.04.26
 (SA) Athletico-PR2
Chapecoense-SC - L0
08.04.26
 (CSS) Chapecoense-SC2
Avaí - W1
05.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC1
Vitória - D1
02.04.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Atlético-MG - L4
28.03.26
 (CSS) Volta Redonda1
Chapecoense-SC - L0
26.03.26
 (CSS) Chapecoense-SC2
São Bernardo - W1
22.03.26
 (SA) Internacional2
Chapecoense-SC - L0
20.03.26
 (SA) Chapecoense-SC0
Corinthians - D0
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Copa Do Brasil fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.45 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?
Our selection is 1 — Botafogo to win, priced at approximately 1.45. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is Botafogo's current form?
Botafogo have won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches.
How has Chapecoense been performing recently?
Chapecoense have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Botafogo lead with 6 wins versus Chapecoense's 3, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 30%.
⚠️
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