WON Tip WON Karvan 0-3 Neftci Baku
K

Karvan

Home
L W W L L
2W 2D 6L → Steady
VS
0-3
N
Neftci Baku
Away
W L D W W
6W 2D 2L ▼ Declining
24predictiontoday Selection · Tuesday, 5th May 2026
2
Backing Neftci Baku to win
Karvan 20%
Draw 30%
Neftci Baku 50%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 76.9% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -18.9% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Neftci Baku to win
1.30
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Karvan vs Neftci Baku Competition: Azerbaijan 1 Liqa Date: Tuesday, 5th May 2026 Pick: 2 (Neftci Baku to win) Odds: 1.30 Confidence: 58% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Karvan
2
Draws
7
Neftci Baku
10
Meetings
1.7
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
30%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Neftci Baku won 7 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Karvan
Metric
Neftci Baku
0.8
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.8
Goals Against / Game
1.4
10%
Clean Sheets
10%
2-2-6
W — D — L
6-2-2
Win Rate
20%
60%
3.2
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
N0
N1
N2
N3
N4
N5
K0
0-0 4.3%
0-1 8.8%
0-2 9.0%
0-3 6.2%
0-4 3.2%
0-5 1.3%
K1
1-0 4.7%
1-1 9.7%
1-2 9.9%
1-3 6.8%
1-4 3.5%
1-5 1.4%
K2
2-0 2.6%
2-1 5.3%
2-2 5.5%
2-3 3.7%
2-4 1.9%
2-5 0.8%
K3
3-0 1.0%
3-1 2.0%
3-2 2.0%
3-3 1.4%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.3%
K4
4-0 0.3%
4-1 0.5%
4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.1%
5-1 0.1%
5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-2(9.9%) 0-2(9.0%) 0-1(8.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   N=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Karvan Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Neftci Baku Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Karvan
Overall
2.6
Scoring
2.7
Defence
4.0
Neftci Baku
Overall
6.6
Scoring
7.7
Defence
5.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 12%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 12%
Draw & BTTS No 8%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 36%
Away Win & BTTS No 24%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
20.12.25PL
Karvan1
Neftci Baku2
27.09.25PL
Neftci Baku0
Karvan0
13.02.10PL
Karvan0
Neftci Baku1
01.11.09PL
Neftci Baku1
Karvan0
03.05.09PL
Karvan1
Neftci Baku1
15.11.08PL
Neftci Baku0
Karvan1
04.05.08PL
Karvan0
Neftci Baku1
03.11.07PL
Neftci Baku2
Karvan1
17.04.07PL
Karvan0
Neftci Baku1
27.10.06PL
Neftci Baku3
Karvan1
Recent Form
Karvan
27.04.26PL
Sabah Baku2
Karvan0
L
18.04.26PL
Karvan1
Shamakhi0
W
10.04.26PL
Karvan4
Kapaz1
W
06.04.26PL
Qarabag7
Karvan0
L
19.03.26PL
Karvan0
Zira1
L
13.03.26PL
Araz2
Karvan1
L
07.03.26PL
Karvan1
Sumqayit1
D
28.02.26PL
Gabala1
Karvan1
D
21.02.26PL
Karvan0
Araz2
L
14.02.26PL
Zira1
Karvan0
L
Neftci Baku
30.04.26PL
Neftci Baku2
Qarabag1
W
26.04.26PL
Neftci Baku1
Qarabag5
L
17.04.26PL
Zira1
Neftci Baku1
D
11.04.26PL
Neftci Baku2
Araz1
W
05.04.26PL
Sumqayit1
Neftci Baku3
W
20.03.26PL
Neftci Baku6
Imisli FK0
W
15.03.26PL
Gabala1
Neftci Baku3
W
09.03.26PL
Neftci Baku0
Turan Tovuz1
L
28.02.26PL
Shamakhi2
Neftci Baku2
D
15.02.26PL
Kapaz1
Neftci Baku3
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Tuesday, 5th May 2026, Karvan host Neftci Baku in Azerbaijan 1 Liqa. We recommend Neftci Baku to win as the standout selection.

Karvan arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Neftci Baku are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 6W 2D 2L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Karvan, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Neftci Baku's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: neftci baku to win at odds of 1.30 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Azerbaijan 1 Liqa fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 2, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.30 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Karvan vs Neftci Baku?
Our selection is 2 — Neftci Baku to win, priced at approximately 1.30. Tip confidence rating: 58%.
What is Karvan's current form?
Karvan have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches.
How has Neftci Baku been performing recently?
Neftci Baku have recorded 6 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Karvan lead with 1 wins versus Neftci Baku's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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