LOST Tip LOST Mbeya City 0-1 Simba
M

Mbeya City

Home
W L D L L
2W 3D 5L ▼ Declining
VS
0-1
S
Simba
Away
W W W W W
10W 1D 0L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Wednesday, 17th June 2026
2
Backing Simba to win
Mbeya City 20%
Draw 30%
Simba 50%
H Fair Odds 5
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 2
Implied Prob 79.4% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -11.4% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
2 — Simba to win
1.26
Simba Clean Sheet55%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Mbeya City vs Simba Competition: Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara Date: Wednesday, 17th June 2026 Pick: 2 (Simba to win) Odds: 1.26 Confidence: 68% Also: Simba Clean Sheet (55%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Mbeya City
1
Draws
8
Simba
10
Meetings
3
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Simba won 8 of 10 meetings.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Mbeya City
Metric
Simba
0.6
Goals For / Game
2.5
2
Goals Against / Game
0.5
30%
Clean Sheets
55%
2-3-5
W — D — L
10-1-0
Win Rate
20%
91%
2.9
Avg Goals
71%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
43%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
S0
S1
S2
S3
S4
S5
M0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 13.7%
0-2 15.4%
0-3 11.5%
0-4 6.5%
0-5 2.9%
M1
1-0 3.3%
1-1 7.5%
1-2 8.5%
1-3 6.4%
1-4 3.6%
1-5 1.6%
M2
2-0 0.9%
2-1 2.1%
2-2 2.3%
2-3 1.8%
2-4 1.0%
2-5 0.4%
M3
3-0 0.2%
3-1 0.4%
3-2 0.4%
3-3 0.3%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.1%
M4
4-0 0.0%
4-1 0.1%
4-2 0.1%
4-3 0.0%
4-4 0.0%
4-5 0.0%
M5
5-0 0.0%
5-1 0.0%
5-2 0.0%
5-3 0.0%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 0-2(15.4%) 0-1(13.7%) 0-3(11.5%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   S=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Mbeya City Win
20%
5
Draw
30%
3.33
Simba Win
50%
2
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Mbeya City
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.0
Defence
3.3
Simba
Overall
9.4
Scoring
8.5
Defence
8.2
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 6%
Home Win & BTTS No 9%
Draw & BTTS Yes 6%
Draw & BTTS No 9%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 40%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 9%
Home Win & Under 2.5 6%
Draw & Over 2.5 9%
Draw & Under 2.5 6%
Away Win & Over 2.5 43%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.12.25LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City0
13.04.25FAC
Simba3
Mbeya City1
18.01.23LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City2
23.11.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Simba1
16.06.22LKB
Simba3
Mbeya City0
17.01.22LKB
Mbeya City1
Simba0
22.06.21LKB
Simba4
Mbeya City1
13.12.20LKB
Mbeya City0
Simba1
24.06.20LKB
Mbeya City0
Simba2
03.11.19LKB
Simba4
Mbeya City0
Recent Form
Mbeya City
13.06.26LKB
Mbeya City1
Mtibwa Sugar0
W
26.05.26LKB
Singida Black Stars4
Mbeya City1
L
21.05.26LKB
Namungo1
Mbeya City1
D
13.05.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Coastal Union2
L
09.05.26LKB
JKT Tanzania1
Mbeya City0
L
04.05.26LKB
Tanzania Prisons1
Mbeya City2
W
30.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Mashujaa0
D
16.04.26LKB
Young Africans6
Mbeya City0
L
12.04.26FAC
Singida Black Stars5
Mbeya City1
L
09.04.26LKB
Mbeya City0
Azam0
D
Simba
14.06.26LKB
Simba2
Pamba1
W
24.05.26LKB
Simba1
Dodoma Jiji0
W
21.05.26LKB
Coastal Union1
Simba2
W
17.05.26FAC
Simba4
TRA United0
W
14.05.26LKB
Mashujaa0
Simba3
W
10.05.26LKB
Simba4
Tanzania Prisons0
W
06.05.26LKB
Simba1
JKT Tanzania0
W
03.05.26LKB
Simba2
Young Africans2
D
19.04.26LKB
Namungo1
Simba3
W
15.04.26LKB
Fountain Gate0
Simba3
W
12.04.26FAC
Simba3
Dodoma Jiji1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Wednesday, 17th June 2026, Mbeya City host Simba in Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara. We recommend Simba to win as the standout selection.

Mbeya City arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Simba are travelling well, with a record of 10W 1D 0L across 11 matches.

Historical meetings favour Mbeya City, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Simba's 8, with 1 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 40% of those meetings.

Our verdict: simba to win at odds of 1.26 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Tanzania Ligi Kuu Bara fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 2, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.26 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Mbeya City vs Simba?
Our selection is 2 — Simba to win, priced at approximately 1.26. Tip confidence rating: 68%.
What is Mbeya City's current form?
Mbeya City have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Simba been performing recently?
Simba have recorded 10 wins, 1 draws and 0 defeats from 11 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Mbeya City lead with 1 wins versus Simba's 8, with 1 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.9 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
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