WON Tip WON RB Leipzig 2=1 Pauli
R

RB Leipzig

Home
L W W W W
7W 1D 2L → Steady
VS
2=1
P
Pauli
Away
L L D L D
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Saturday, 9th May 2026
1
Backing RB Leipzig to win
RB Leipzig 50%
Draw 30%
Pauli 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -21.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — RB Leipzig to win
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
RB Leipzig vs Pauli Competition: Bundesliga Date: Saturday, 9th May 2026 Pick: 1 (RB Leipzig to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 53% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
3
RB Leipzig
2
Draws
3
Pauli
8
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
38%
BTTS
25%
Over 2.5
Against Tip RB Leipzig won 3 of the last 8 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
RB Leipzig
Metric
Pauli
2.1
Goals For / Game
0.7
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.6
20%
Clean Sheets
20%
7-1-2
W — D — L
2-3-5
Win Rate
70%
20%
2.8
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
R0
0-0 6.1%
0-1 5.8%
0-2 2.7%
0-3 0.9%
0-4 0.2%
0-5 0.0%
R1
1-0 11.3%
1-1 10.7%
1-2 5.1%
1-3 1.6%
1-4 0.4%
1-5 0.1%
R2
2-0 10.4%
2-1 9.9%
2-2 4.7%
2-3 1.5%
2-4 0.4%
2-5 0.1%
R3
3-0 6.4%
3-1 6.1%
3-2 2.9%
3-3 0.9%
3-4 0.2%
3-5 0.0%
R4
4-0 3.0%
4-1 2.8%
4-2 1.3%
4-3 0.4%
4-4 0.1%
4-5 0.0%
R5
5-0 1.1%
5-1 1.0%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.0%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-0(11.3%) 2-0(10.4%) 2-1(9.9%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
RB Leipzig Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
Pauli Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
RB Leipzig
Overall
7.3
Scoring
7.0
Defence
6.0
Pauli
Overall
2.9
Scoring
2.3
Defence
4.7
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 38%
Home Win & BTTS No 26%
Draw & BTTS Yes 11%
Draw & BTTS No 7%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 11%
Away Win & BTTS No 7%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 38%
Home Win & Under 2.5 26%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 7%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 7%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
27.01.26BUN
St. Pauli1
RB Leipzig1
09.02.25BUN
RB Leipzig2
St. Pauli0
29.10.24POK
RB Leipzig4
St. Pauli2
22.09.24BUN
St. Pauli0
RB Leipzig0
12.02.162BUN
St. Pauli1
RB Leipzig0
23.08.152BUN
RB Leipzig0
St. Pauli1
03.05.152BUN
St. Pauli1
RB Leipzig0
23.11.142BUN
RB Leipzig4
St. Pauli1
Recent Form
RB Leipzig
02.05.26BUN
Bayer Leverkusen4
RB Leipzig1
L
24.04.26BUN
RB Leipzig3
Union Berlin1
W
18.04.26BUN
Eintracht Frankfurt1
RB Leipzig3
W
11.04.26BUN
RB Leipzig1
B. Monchengladbach0
W
04.04.26BUN
Werder Bremen1
RB Leipzig2
W
20.03.26BUN
RB Leipzig5
Hoffenheim0
W
15.03.26BUN
Stuttgart1
RB Leipzig0
L
07.03.26BUN
RB Leipzig2
Augsburg1
W
01.03.26BUN
Hamburger SV1
RB Leipzig2
W
21.02.26BUN
RB Leipzig2
Dortmund2
D
Pauli
03.05.26BUN
St. Pauli1
Mainz2
L
25.04.26BUN
Heidenheim2
St. Pauli0
L
17.04.26BUN
St. Pauli1
FC Koln1
D
11.04.26BUN
St. Pauli0
Bayern Munich5
L
05.04.26BUN
Union Berlin1
St. Pauli1
D
22.03.26BUN
St. Pauli1
Freiburg2
L
13.03.26BUN
B. Monchengladbach2
St. Pauli0
L
08.03.26BUN
St. Pauli0
Eintracht Frankfurt0
D
28.02.26BUN
Hoffenheim0
St. Pauli1
W
22.02.26BUN
St. Pauli2
Werder Bremen1
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Bundesliga fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.35 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for RB Leipzig vs Pauli?
Our selection is 1 — RB Leipzig to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 53%.
What is RB Leipzig's current form?
RB Leipzig have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches.
How has Pauli been performing recently?
Pauli have recorded 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
RB Leipzig lead with 3 wins versus Pauli's 3, with 2 draws across 8 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 2.8 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 38%.
⚠️
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