WON Tip WON Rodina Moscow 5-2 FC Chayka
R

Rodina Moscow

Home
D W W L D
2W 4D 4L → Steady
VS
5-2
F
FC Chayka
Away
D W L L L
4W 2D 4L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Monday, 23rd March 2026
1
Backing Rodina Moscow to win
Rodina Moscow 50%
Draw 30%
FC Chayka 20%
H Fair Odds 2
D Fair Odds 3.33
A Fair Odds 5
Implied Prob 74.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge -40.1% Overpriced
Kelly % 0% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
1 — Rodina Moscow to win
1.35
Over 1.5 Goals80%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
Rodina Moscow vs FC Chayka Competition: Russia FNL Date: Monday, 23rd March 2026 Pick: 1 (Rodina Moscow to win) Odds: 1.35 Confidence: 34% Also: Over 1.5 Goals (80%)
Head to Head
Record
1
Rodina Moscow
2
Draws
1
FC Chayka
4
Meetings
2.3
Avg Goals
50%
BTTS
50%
Over 2.5
Against Tip Rodina Moscow won 1 of the last 4 meetings (2 draws).
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Rodina Moscow
Metric
FC Chayka
1.2
Goals For / Game
1.9
1.4
Goals Against / Game
1.7
20%
Clean Sheets
40%
2-4-4
W — D — L
4-2-4
Win Rate
20%
40%
3.1
Avg Goals
80%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
60%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
F0
F1
F2
F3
F4
F5
R0
0-0 4.5%
0-1 7.4%
0-2 6.1%
0-3 3.4%
0-4 1.4%
0-5 0.5%
R1
1-0 6.5%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 8.9%
1-3 4.9%
1-4 2.0%
1-5 0.7%
R2
2-0 4.7%
2-1 7.8%
2-2 6.5%
2-3 3.6%
2-4 1.5%
2-5 0.5%
R3
3-0 2.3%
3-1 3.8%
3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.7%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
R4
4-0 0.8%
4-1 1.4%
4-2 1.1%
4-3 0.6%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
R5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.4%
5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.2%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 2-1(7.8%) 1-0(6.5%) 2-0(4.7%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip R=Home goals ↓   F=Away →
📉
Market Odds Intelligence
Value Finder
Rodina Moscow Win
50%
2
Draw
30%
3.33
FC Chayka Win
20%
5
Fair value decimal odds based on probability model. Compare against your bookmaker's line to identify value.
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Rodina Moscow
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.0
Defence
5.3
FC Chayka
Overall
4.6
Scoring
6.3
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Home Win & BTTS No 9%
Draw & BTTS Yes 20%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 27%
Away Win & BTTS No 18%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 13%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 20%
Draw & Under 2.5 13%
Away Win & Over 2.5 27%
Away Win & Under 2.5 18%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
04.10.25
FNL: FK Chayka0
Rodina Moscow0
10.11.24
FNL: Rodina Moscow2
FK Chayka0
11.08.24
FNL: FK Chayka2
Rodina Moscow 2
09.02.23
CF: Rodina Moscow1
FK Chayka 2
Recent Form
Rodina Moscow
14.03.26
FNL: SKA Khabarovsk2
Rodina Moscow2
D
08.03.26
FNL: Torpedo Moscow0
Rodina Moscow2
W
02.03.26
FNL: Rodina Moscow2
Shinnik Yaroslavl1
W
20.02.26
CF: Chelyabinsk1
Rodina Moscow0
L
20.02.26
CF: Rodina Moscow0
Chernomorets0
D
18.02.26
CF: Pyunik Yerevan2
Rodina Moscow1
L
15.02.26
CF: Sochi1
Rodina Moscow1
D
15.02.26
CF: Sochi3
Rodina Moscow2
L
11.02.26
CF: Ufa2
Rodina Moscow2
D
11.02.26
CF: S. Kostroma2
Rodina Moscow0
L
FC Chayka
14.03.26
FNL: S. Kostroma1
FK Chayka1
D
07.03.26
FNL: FK Chayka1
Saratov0
W
01.03.26
FNL: FK Chayka1
SKA Khabarovsk3
L
20.02.26
CF: FK Chayka3
Krylya Sovetov5
L
14.02.26
CF: FK Chayka2
Arsenal Tula4
L
11.02.26
CF: FK Chayka0
Altai0
D
06.02.26
CF: Graficar Beograd0
FK Chayka4
W
05.02.26
CF: FK Chayka2
Alay Osh1
W
28.01.26
CF: Yenisey0
FK Chayka3
W
20.01.26
CF: FK Chayka2
Ozgon3
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Monday, 23rd March 2026, Rodina Moscow host FC Chayka in Russia FNL. We recommend Rodina Moscow to win as the standout selection.

Rodina Moscow arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

FC Chayka are inconsistent on the road, with a record of 4W 2D 4L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour Rodina Moscow, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to FC Chayka's 1, with 2 draws from 4 encounters. Both teams have scored in 50% of those meetings.

Our verdict: rodina moscow to win at odds of 1.35 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Russia FNL fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is 1, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.35 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Rodina Moscow vs FC Chayka?
Our selection is 1 — Rodina Moscow to win, priced at approximately 1.35. Tip confidence rating: 34%.
What is Rodina Moscow's current form?
Rodina Moscow have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has FC Chayka been performing recently?
FC Chayka have recorded 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Rodina Moscow lead with 1 wins versus FC Chayka's 1, with 2 draws across 4 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 50%.
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