LOST Tip LOST Kapaz 1-0 Qarabag
K

Kapaz

Home
D D L W L
2W 3D 5L ▲ Improving
VS
1-0
Q
Qarabag
Away
W W W D L
6W 1D 3L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 20th March 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 64.1% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +17.9% Value detected
Kelly % 49.9% Suggested bankroll %
Head to Head
Record
1
Kapaz
2
Draws
7
Qarabag
10
Meetings
3.4
Avg Goals
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 60% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
Kapaz
Metric
Qarabag
0.9
Goals For / Game
2.3
1.2
Goals Against / Game
1.7
30%
Clean Sheets
30%
2-3-5
W — D — L
6-1-3
Win Rate
20%
60%
3.1
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
50%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
Q0
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q5
K0
0-0 4.7%
0-1 8.3%
0-2 7.3%
0-3 4.2%
0-4 1.9%
0-5 0.7%
K1
1-0 6.2%
1-1 10.8%
1-2 9.4%
1-3 5.5%
1-4 2.4%
1-5 0.8%
K2
2-0 4.0%
2-1 7.0%
2-2 6.1%
2-3 3.6%
2-4 1.6%
2-5 0.6%
K3
3-0 1.7%
3-1 3.0%
3-2 2.7%
3-3 1.6%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
K4
4-0 0.6%
4-1 1.0%
4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.5%
4-4 0.2%
4-5 0.1%
K5
5-0 0.2%
5-1 0.3%
5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.8%) 1-2(9.4%) 0-1(8.3%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip K=Home goals ↓   Q=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
Kapaz
Overall
2.9
Scoring
3.0
Defence
6.0
Qarabag
Overall
6.3
Scoring
7.7
Defence
4.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 10%
Home Win & BTTS No 10%
Draw & BTTS Yes 10%
Draw & BTTS No 10%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 30%
Away Win & BTTS No 30%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 11%
Home Win & Under 2.5 9%
Draw & Over 2.5 11%
Draw & Under 2.5 9%
Away Win & Over 2.5 33%
Away Win & Under 2.5 27%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
24.01.26
PL: Qarabag0
Kapaz2
04.10.25
PL: Qarabag1
Kapaz0
18.05.25
PL: Qarabag3
Kapaz0
15.03.25
PL: Kapaz0
Qarabag0
18.10.24
PL: Kapaz0
Qarabag5
09.08.24
PL: Qarabag3
Kapaz0
29.03.24
PL: Kapaz1
Qarabag6
27.01.24
PL: Kapaz1
Qarabag2
04.11.23
PL: Qarabag7
Kapaz1
27.08.23
PL: Qarabag1
Kapaz1
Recent Form
Kapaz
15.03.26
PL: Kapaz1
Turan Tovuz1
D
09.03.26
PL: Zira2
Kapaz2
D
05.03.26
CUP: Kapaz0
Turan Tovuz2
L
27.02.26
PL: Kapaz3
Sumqayit0
W
22.02.26
PL: Sabah Baku1
Kapaz0
L
15.02.26
PL: Kapaz1
Neftci Baku3
L
09.02.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Kapaz0
D
05.02.26
CUP: Turan Tovuz1
Kapaz0
L
31.01.26
PL: Kapaz0
Shamakhi2
L
24.01.26
PL: Qarabag0
Kapaz2
W
Qarabag
14.03.26
PL: Zira1
Qarabag3
W
08.03.26
PL: Qarabag6
Araz0
W
04.03.26
CUP: Qarabag3
Shamakhi1
W
01.03.26
PL: Qarabag3
Sabah Baku3
D
24.02.26
CL: Newcastle3
Qarabag2
L
18.02.26
CL: Qarabag1
Newcastle6
L
14.02.26
PL: Imisli FK0
Qarabag1
W
10.02.26
PL: Shamakhi1
Qarabag2
W
05.02.26
CUP: Shamakhi2
Qarabag1
L
01.02.26
PL: Qarabag1
Turan Tovuz0
W
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Azerbaijan League fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 2.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.56 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for Kapaz vs Qarabag?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.56. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is Kapaz's current form?
Kapaz have won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches.
How has Qarabag been performing recently?
Qarabag have recorded 6 wins, 1 draws and 3 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
Kapaz lead with 1 wins versus Qarabag's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.1 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 40%.
⚠️
Bet Responsibly. 24predictiontoday provides predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only. Predictions are statistical models, not guaranteed outcomes. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. If gambling is affecting your life, contact BeGambleAware.org or call 0808 8020 133 (UK). 18+ only.

18+Gambling can be addictive. Please gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.