LOST Tip LOST MTK Budapest 0-2 Paks
M

MTK Budapest

Home
D D D L D
2W 4D 4L ▲ Improving
VS
0-2
P
Paks
Away
D D L L L
1W 2D 7L ▲ Improving
24predictiontoday Selection · Friday, 20th March 2026
Over 2.5
Backing over 2.5 goals
Implied Prob 72.5% Bookie's implied odds
Our Edge +9.5% Value detected
Kelly % 34.6% Suggested bankroll %
Supporting Bets
Extras
Primary Selection
Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals
1.38
Over 2.5 Goals65% BTTS — Yes75%
📋 Betting Slip / Acca Builder
MTK Budapest vs Paks Competition: Hungary NB 1 Date: Friday, 20th March 2026 Pick: Over 2.5 (over 2.5 goals) Odds: 1.38 Confidence: 82% Also: Over 2.5 Goals (65%) Also: BTTS — Yes (75%)
Head to Head
Record
1
MTK Budapest
2
Draws
7
Paks
10
Meetings
3.5
Avg Goals
70%
BTTS
70%
Over 2.5
Supports Tip Over 2.5 in 70% of H2H.
📊
Stats Duel
Comparison
MTK Budapest
Metric
Paks
1.4
Goals For / Game
1.1
1.9
Goals Against / Game
2
20%
Clean Sheets
10%
2-4-4
W — D — L
1-2-7
Win Rate
20%
10%
3.2
Avg Goals
75%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
75%
BTTS Rate
🎯
Score Probability Matrix
Poisson Model
P0
P1
P2
P3
P4
P5
M0
0-0 4.1%
0-1 6.1%
0-2 4.6%
0-3 2.3%
0-4 0.9%
0-5 0.3%
M1
1-0 6.9%
1-1 10.4%
1-2 7.8%
1-3 3.9%
1-4 1.5%
1-5 0.4%
M2
2-0 5.9%
2-1 8.8%
2-2 6.6%
2-3 3.3%
2-4 1.2%
2-5 0.4%
M3
3-0 3.3%
3-1 5.0%
3-2 3.8%
3-3 1.9%
3-4 0.7%
3-5 0.2%
M4
4-0 1.4%
4-1 2.1%
4-2 1.6%
4-3 0.8%
4-4 0.3%
4-5 0.1%
M5
5-0 0.5%
5-1 0.7%
5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.3%
5-4 0.1%
5-5 0.0%
Top Scores 1-1(10.4%) 2-1(8.8%) 1-2(7.8%)
■ Best match ■ Possible ■ Low · ■ Contradicts tip M=Home goals ↓   P=Away →
📈
Team Ratings
Grades
MTK Budapest
Overall
3.2
Scoring
4.7
Defence
3.7
Paks
Overall
1.6
Scoring
3.7
Defence
3.3
🔀
Combination Markets
Smart Picks
Result & BTTS
Home Win & BTTS Yes 25%
Home Win & BTTS No 8%
Draw & BTTS Yes 38%
Draw & BTTS No 13%
Away Win & BTTS Yes 13%
Away Win & BTTS No 4%
Result & Goals
Home Win & Over 2.5 21%
Home Win & Under 2.5 12%
Draw & Over 2.5 33%
Draw & Under 2.5 18%
Away Win & Over 2.5 11%
Away Win & Under 2.5 6%
🧮
Stake Calculator
Bankroll Tool
Kelly %
Stake
Potential Profit
Uses Kelly Criterion at selected fraction. Half Kelly (0.5) is recommended for reduced variance. Not financial advice.
📜
Match Archives
History
Head to Head
06.12.25
NBI: Paksi FC3
MTK Budapest1
24.08.25
NBI: MTK Budapest2
Paksi FC3
11.04.25
NBI: MTK Budapest1
Paksi FC2
07.12.24
NBI: Paksi FC4
MTK Budapest2
03.12.24
NBI: MTK Budapest3
Paksi FC1
03.03.24
NBI: MTK Budapest0
Paksi FC2
05.11.23
NBI: Paksi FC0
MTK Budapest0
28.07.23
NBI: MTK Budapest1
Paksi FC1
16.04.22
NBI: Paksi FC4
MTK Budapest0
18.12.21
NBI: MTK Budapest1
Paksi FC4
Recent Form
MTK Budapest
13.03.26
NBI: ETO Győr0
MTK Budapest0
D
08.03.26
NBI: MTK Budapest1
DVTK1
D
27.02.26
NBI: Debrecen2
MTK Budapest2
D
23.02.26
NBI: MTK Budapest1
Ferencváros3
L
14.02.26
NBI: MTK Budapest2
Puskás Academy2
D
11.02.26
HC: MTK Budapest1
Kecskeméti TE2
L
08.02.26
NBI: Nyíregyháza4
MTK Budapest2
L
31.01.26
NBI: MTK Budapest1
Kazincbarcika3
L
24.01.26
NBI: Kisvárda2
MTK Budapest3
W
17.01.26
CF: MTK Budapest1
Ajka0
W
Paks
14.03.26
NBI: Paksi FC1
Zalaegerszegi1
D
07.03.26
NBI: Újpest0
Paksi FC0
D
28.02.26
NBI: Kisvárda2
Paksi FC1
L
22.02.26
NBI: Paksi FC3
ETO Győr4
L
14.02.26
NBI: Paksi FC1
DVTK2
L
11.02.26
HC: Paksi FC2
DVTK6
L
07.02.26
NBI: Debrecen1
Paksi FC0
L
01.02.26
NBI: Paksi FC0
Ferencváros1
L
24.01.26
NBI: Puskás Academy1
Paksi FC2
W
16.01.26
CF: Widzew Łódź2
Paksi FC1
L
📝
Match Analysis
Writeup

On Friday, 20th March 2026, MTK Budapest host Paks in Hungary NB 1. We recommend over 2.5 goals as the standout selection.

MTK Budapest arrive going through a difficult run, having recorded 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats from their last 10 outings.

Paks are struggling away from home, with a record of 1W 2D 7L across 10 matches.

Historical meetings favour MTK Budapest, who lead the head-to-head with 1 wins to Paks's 7, with 2 draws from 10 encounters. Both teams have scored in 70% of those meetings.

Our verdict: over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.38 represents the most compelling value in this fixture.


Beating the oddsmakers requires a careful, steady approach, and this upcoming Hungary NB 1 fixture is a textbook case for why data analysis works. The key is to take the emotion out of the game and focus on the hard numbers that actually move the market. Let’s look at the hosts first.

Their general form establishes their market expectation. Yet, seasoned bettors know to look a lot closer. A deep dive into their recent performances uncovers the clear reality of their current attacking rhythm and their defensive discipline.

The traveling team possesses a unique profile that we need to unpack. Comparing their long-term form with the immediate spark shown in their latest games is essential to finding out if they hold hidden betting value today. History cannot be swept under the rug, either.

Evaluating the head-to-head data frequently highlights recurring dominance or tactical setups that regularly cause problems for one side. Mixing these past encounters with the latest form metrics yields a strong pick for the clash. With all variables considered, the optimal path is obvious.

Our highlighted choice is Over 2.5, which is where the sharp money is heading, boosted by the current @1.38 odds available. Once the whistle blows, the talking is over. It will all come down to the final score to validate our statistical blueprint.

Make sure to review our other daily predictions.

Quick Answers
FAQ
What is the recommended bet for MTK Budapest vs Paks?
Our selection is Over 2.5 — over 2.5 goals, priced at approximately 1.38. Tip confidence rating: 82%.
What is MTK Budapest's current form?
MTK Budapest have won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches.
How has Paks been performing recently?
Paks have recorded 1 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats from 10 recent games.
What does the head-to-head record show?
MTK Budapest lead with 1 wins versus Paks's 7, with 2 draws across 10 meetings.
How many goals are expected in this match?
Recent fixtures involving these sides average 3.2 goals per game. The head-to-head BTTS rate stands at 70%.
⚠️
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